Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Standard Chartered flags a slump in European exports to the US and rising tariff risks, threatening EUR/USD support and widening rate differentials.
Commerzbank analysts warn that EU ETS reform will raise carbon costs for aluminium smelters, compressing margins and potentially weighing on the euro via industrial-growth headwinds.
DBS now expects a milder tightening cycle from Taiwan's central bank, reducing the rate support that had cushioned the Taiwan dollar. The next CBC meeting is a binary event for TWD.
TD Securities sees the Fed holding a neutral policy stance as inflation stabilizes, removing immediate rate-cut urgency. The dollar and short-end yields face a range-bound path until the next data shift.
MUFG says ringgit appreciation trend vs dollar remains intact, on narrowing rate gaps and commodity support. Next catalyst: BNM's rate decision.
U.S. inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, sending the dollar higher and pushing EUR/USD below 1.08. Traders now price a higher terminal rate.
Nagel's inflation warning pushes back on near-term ECB rate cuts, lifting the euro and bund yields. The next catalyst: eurozone CPI data that will validate or weaken the hawkish stance.
India's GST receipts are narrowing as demand concentrates, Societe Generale warns, signaling a less supportive RBI rate path for the rupee.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's defense of Fed independence aims to anchor inflation expectations, preventing a repricing of long-end Treasuries that would lift the dollar and hit growth stocks.
Hot US CPI data sent the dollar surging, repricing Fed rate-cut expectations and widening yield differentials. The next Fed meeting will test the hawkish shift.
US $215B April deficit came in $5B below the $220B forecast, reducing near-term Treasury supply fears. The May refunding will reveal if auction sizes adjust.
WTI and Brent dipped after Trump said the Iran blockade is 100% successful and promised a gusher of oil, weakening CAD and NOK. Next up: EIA inventories and China talks.
Commerzbank sees Iran supply risk and China's price-sensitive buying creating a capped oil range, leaving USD/CAD and EUR/NOK in a two-way pull.
Strait of Hormuz tensions and a tightening supply outlook are keeping a floor under WTI, and that bid is flowing directly into oil-correlated currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone.
The stay keeps the 10% surcharge in effect during appeal; Commerce Secretary Lutnick warns lifting it could trigger a flood of imports.
TD Securities adopts a neutral range trading outlook on the US dollar, signaling no clear directional bias. The next inflation print or Fed shift could break the stalemate.
The New Zealand dollar dropped as a hot US inflation reading boosted Treasury yields and the greenback. Attention now pivots to the RBNZ's rate outlook for the next catalyst.
The US 10-year note auction tailed to 4.468%, signaling weaker demand. Dollar pairs are repricing after yields climbed, focusing on Fed speakers.
10-year note auction tails 0.4 bps at 4.468% yield; bid-to-cover 2.400X. The yield concession widens dollar rate advantage ahead of the 30-year bond sale.
The narrow 51-45 vote adds a hawkish-leaning voice to the Fed Board as the Senate prepares to vote on the Chair nomination Wednesday. Dollar and rate markets are repricing.
Gilt yields jumped as political risk premium spiked, and a hotter US CPI print amplified dollar strength, driving GBP/USD to 1.35 and EUR/GBP toward 0.87. Next catalyst: further political clarity.
The pound weakened against the dollar after a hotter-than-expected US inflation print boosted the greenback, while UK political uncertainty compounded the selling pressure. Traders now look to the next UK inflation data for direction.
The US 52-week bill auction yield rose to 3.65% from 3.56%, signaling tighter short-term funding conditions and supporting the dollar. Next focus shifts to Fed minutes for rate path clues.
A US inflation surprise widened the policy yield gap and sent the dollar higher. Hawkish BoJ signals kept the yen from sliding further, confining USD/JPY to a tight range.
The Canadian dollar lost ground after a robust US inflation print pushed Treasury yields higher, widening the rate differential with the BoC. The loonie now eyes the next batch of US data and Fed commentary for further direction.
Copper's resilience despite Middle East tensions reflects a structural supply deficit that is insulating the metal from risk-off moves, supporting commodity currencies like AUD and CAD.
The May 14-15 Xi-Trump meeting is expected to yield symbolic trade boards and an extended tariff truce. No shift on Taiwan is expected, keeping USD/CNH rangebound. Rate differentials remain the real catalyst.
The Fed’s recognition of AI-boosted productivity signals a higher neutral rate, keeping the policy stance tighter for longer. The dollar inches up, pressuring EUR/USD toward 1.0800.
Gasoline averaged $4.504/gal as CPI runs at 3.8%. Service inflation stays sticky, says Goolsbee. The OPEC+ meeting is the next catalyst for the crude-to-CPI transmission.
Austan Goolsbee’s acknowledgment that the U.S. has an inflation problem sends ripples through rate markets, dollar, and risk assets. Next marker: upcoming CPI data.