Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
TD Securities sees fiscal loosening and contained wages as the key drivers for AUD/USD. The next catalyst is the federal budget update, testing whether the Australian dollar breaks out.
The 1.4% monthly PPI gain nearly tripled estimates, lifting the two-year yield above 4% and sending GBP/USD and NZD/USD to fresh lows. The next test is the PCE deflator, which will incorporate the inflation pulse.
US core PPI jumped 1% MoM in April, tripling the 0.3% forecast. The dollar surged as rate-cut bets collapsed; EUR/USD broke below 1.06. Next: Fed minutes and CPI.
The 0.9pp beat reset Fed rate-cut expectations, sending EUR/USD below 1.07 and GBP/USD through 1.25. Next catalyst: CPI and Fed speeches.
Rising price pressures challenge the rate-cut narrative, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar. The next CPI print will test the Fed's resolve.
Oil's surge widens the cost gap between crude-linked and gas-pegged LNG, strengthening the case for US cargoes. Cheniere Energy's spot exposure stands to benefit.
TD Securities flags that Bank of Canada meeting minutes will be parsed for rate-path signals, with the loonie's direction at stake. Markets will look for any shift in the governing council's tone.
US CPI surged to 3.8% y/y, shifting Fed rate hike odds to 33%. UK political risk pushed Starmer exit probability to 66%, driving 30-year Gilt yields to their highest since 1998.
The ECB's Olli Rehn pushed back against oil-driven tightening, signaling a focus on core inflation. The comment could cap euro upside and limit bund yield spikes ahead of the June meeting.
The MBA index rose 1.7% after a 4.4% decline, hinting that easing mortgage rates are stabilizing housing demand. Next: CPI data will confirm if the dollar’s rate advantage holds.
EUR/GBP is approaching 0.8650 as soft Eurozone data widens rate differentials against the pound. The next support test hinges on upcoming BoE commentary.
Sweden's temporary fuel tax cut aims to cool headline inflation. The Riksbank's focus on core prices leaves the krona's rate path uncertain.
Crude oil breached $100 a barrel after a Strait of Hormuz disruption and stalled US-Iran talks. The move is repricing inflation expectations and pressuring currencies, with the dollar strengthening.
A Fed alert morning bid resets rate expectations, lifting the 2-year yield and the dollar. The transmission chain then hits equities, commodities, and crypto. Next marker: FOMC decision.
ECB's Muller ties the June rate hold to a quick Strait of Hormuz resolution, putting energy-price risk at the center of the policy path. Next: euro reaction if disruption persists.
The break below 1.1700 accelerates the selloff. Widening rate differentials favor the dollar. Next support at 1.1650; ECB minutes and US CPI are the next catalysts.
The pound is on track for its first weekly loss in six weeks as Starmer resists resignation calls, injecting political risk into a stability-driven rally.
Kuroda's statement validates the 160 barrier, recasting the yen carry trade and limiting USD/JPY upside. Next test: BOJ meeting on 14 June and US CPI.
Hot CPI data keeps the Fed cautious and lifts the dollar. Danske Bank sees interest rates staying high, widening yield gaps and applying fresh pressure on EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
WTI at $101.54 and Brent at $107.28 after 30-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire; rate differentials shift for USD/CAD and EUR/USD. Next catalyst: U.S. crude inventories and OPEC+ policy.
Germany's 30-year bond auction cleared at 3.62%, up 5bp from 3.57%, shifting the rate differential that drives EUR/USD. The next move hinges on ECB speakers and US PCE data.
The Australian dollar pushed through key resistance as hawkish RBA bets widened yield advantages. The cash rate at 4.35% and a growing chance of a hike are driving carry flows. The next jobs and CPI prints will test the rally.
Commerzbank expects a gradual rise in India's consumer price index, which could delay RBI rate cuts and support the rupee. The next CPI print is the key catalyst for USD/INR.
Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% in March, missing the 0.3% forecast. Energy output fell 1.5% and non-durable consumer goods plunged 4.5%, offsetting capital goods gains. EUR/USD traders now watch for ECB rhetoric on growth risks.
Eurozone GDP slowed to 0.1% qoq in Q1, annual growth halved to 0.8%, reinforcing ECB easing bets and narrowing the rate advantage against the dollar. The next test for the euro comes with flash PMIs.
The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low of 95.7450 per dollar as rising crude oil prices swelled India's import bill, adding to pressure from overseas debt repayments and importer hedging.
Eurozone employment rose 0.1% QoQ in Q1, matching forecasts. EUR/USD held steady as the data left ECB rate-cut timing unchanged. Next catalyst: CPI.
Eurozone Q1 GDP confirmed at 0.1% qoq, with Q4 revised lower. Rising oil and gas prices are crushing sentiment and consumption, strengthening the case for a June ECB rate cut.
The 0.1% QoQ print matched estimates, leaving the ECB's rate-cut timeline unchanged. EUR/USD now hinges on US CPI and the widening yield gap.
Eurozone industrial production fell 2.1% YoY in March, missing the -1.7% forecast. The widening rate-cut gap pressures EUR/USD ahead of US retail sales.