Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
BNP Paribas warns rising US yields are raising Indonesia's debt costs and pressuring the rupiah, with USD/IDR testing 15,800. The next Bank Indonesia rate decision is the catalyst.
The 2-year Treasury yield holds near 4.85% as the Minneapolis Fed chief says inflation is too high, reinforcing the dollar’s carry appeal ahead of CPI report.
DXY tests yearly moving average and multi-month range top. A close above would confirm a breakout, shifting structure to trending and pressuring EUR/USD, gold, and EM currencies.
The order aims to shield consumers from oil spikes while adding fiscal burden, testing the central bank's inflation fight and the real's resilience.
The Canadian dollar held its ground against a broadly stronger greenback as rising crude prices offset the dollar bid from a firm US inflation reading. Traders now look to Canadian CPI.
The 30-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.05%, up from 4.876%, resetting long-end yield levels. The move widens rate differentials, supporting the dollar ahead of Fed minutes and CPI.
Stalled US-Iran talks keep Iranian supply sidelined and Hormuz risk alive, pulling WTI back from $100. The failed test caps commodity FX gains while holding a price floor near $97.
Striking 'maximum employment' from the Fed's mandate would remove the employment buffer, forcing a repricing of the yield curve, dollar, and risk assets. The 2025 framework review is the next catalyst.
The pound fell after a hot US PPI print and Starmer turmoil widened the rate differential and added a risk premium. Next: UK CPI and Fed speakers.
The British pound dropped against the dollar after a hot US producer price index and political turmoil around UK PM Keir Starmer. The next UK CPI print now becomes the directional catalyst.
BNY's real-money custody flows reveal that yen-funded carry trades remain the APAC anchor, while yuan fix management sets the regional tone. The next catalyst is the Bank of Japan's policy meeting.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said a prolonged conflict would force the central bank to balance inflation risks against growth concerns, complicating the rate outlook.
Natural gas futures drift sideways as shoulder season demand void keeps rallies capped below the 50-day EMA. The $3 level is a psychological barrier; the trade is to fade pops toward the $2.55 target.
US producer prices jumped 1.4% month-on-month in April, pushing the year-on-year rate to 6.0%. The print forced a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with futures now pricing a non-trivial probability of a hike in early 2026. The dollar index is playing catch-up to the rate move, pressuring EUR/USD toward 1.10.
The yen weakened after US inflation data pushed Fed rate-hike expectations higher, widening the yield gap. Upcoming Trump-Xi talks could add safe-haven demand or trade-policy risk.
A hawkish BoJ should lift the yen. A disorderly JGB selloff could force emergency bond buying and weaken it. The next BoJ meeting will test which force dominates.
Catherine Mann's acknowledgment that rate hikes cannot fix supply-driven inflation complicates the BoE's path and could cap sterling's upside ahead of the next UK CPI release.
The euro slid against the dollar after a hotter-than-expected US inflation print lifted the odds of further Federal Reserve tightening, shifting rate differentials in the greenback's favor.
AUD/USD held steady after a US PPI beat, signaling hawkish Fed expectations are priced in. The next CPI report will determine if the pair breaks its range.
ING flags UK political risk as a weight on sterling, pushing EUR/GBP higher. The bank's note points to a fresh leg higher as fiscal uncertainty saps demand for the currency.
US PPI jumped to 6% YoY in April as oil costs surged, reigniting stagflation fears and sending the dollar higher. Next catalyst: the CPI print.
The April PPI surge, driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict, pushed Treasury yields higher and widened rate differentials, pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Scotiabank sees the Canadian dollar trading sideways against the greenback as valuation looks stretched, limiting near-term upside for the loonie. Traders now watch for a catalyst to break the range, with Bank of Canada and Fed policy paths the next key driver.
EIA slashes supply forecast by 2.6M bpd, IEA sees 1.78M bpd deficit. Buffers cap prices now; structural damage points to $95 Brent in 2026 and a multi-quarter tailwind for CAD, NOK, BRL.
US PPI surge drives Fed hike expectations toward 40%, while UK leadership challenge threat sends sterling to test 1.3453 support. Next: ECB speakers and UK political developments.
The British pound weakened against the Japanese yen as political turmoil in the UK raised questions about fiscal policy direction, driving flows into the safe-haven yen. The next test for GBP/JPY is the upcoming leadership vote.
Crude oil cleared the 96.90 resistance, opening a path toward 106.00-108.35. Support at 93.90 must hold. The next test is whether the breakout can sustain above 96.90 on a closing basis.
Headline PPI rose 1.4% mom, the largest gain since March 2022, with services and goods accelerating. The dollar jumped and EUR/USD fell below 1.05 on near-term Fed rate cut repricing.
US PPI hit 6% YoY in April, well above the 4.9% forecast, forcing a repricing of Fed rate-cut bets and sending the dollar higher against the euro and pound.
TD Securities sees fiscal loosening and contained wages as the key drivers for AUD/USD. The next catalyst is the federal budget update, testing whether the Australian dollar breaks out.