Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
The kiwi fell as easing US-China trade tensions and firm US data lifted the dollar, highlighting the currency's link to risk appetite. Next: US data and trade headlines.
The yen's undervaluation is building risk that a coordinated BOJ rate hike and MOF intervention could trigger a sharp reversal in USD/JPY, BNY warns.
Nvidia shares rose 3.19% to $233.04 after President Trump approved H200 chip sales to China, removing a key export overhang. The next policy signal will determine if the rally extends.
Real US retail sales fell 0.2% in April, inflated nominal gain 0.5%. Upward revisions and 5.7% core y/y growth keep Fed cautious, supporting dollar.
Brent crude held near $105 as China’s statement skipped Hormuz, keeping a war premium in oil. Next catalyst: day-two summit talks or US naval escort pivot.
March surplus of $13.966B exceeded the $11.8B consensus. The beat suggests export revenues are holding up. The ruble's managed rate means the transmission is not automatic. Next: Bank of Russia rate decision.
The control group that feeds into GDP rose 0.5% mom, pushing back on rate-cut bets and supporting the dollar. Next catalyst: core PCE.
DBS analysts see sterling volatility rotating from economic data to political risk, creating a new execution challenge for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP traders.
April import prices rose 1.9% m/m, nearly double the 1.0% forecast, while export prices surged 3.3%. The surprise pushes back Fed rate-cut expectations, lifting the dollar and pressuring rate-sensitive assets.
Initial claims rose 12k to 211k, above the 205k consensus. The miss shifts the rate-cut timeline, putting the dollar's recent strength in question ahead of retail sales data.
The 0.5% monthly gain kept the consumer spending narrative intact, leaving Fed rate-cut expectations unchanged and the dollar's yield advantage steady. Next focus shifts to core PCE data.
The import price index doubled from 2.1% to 4.2% in April, signaling pipeline inflation that could push the Fed to hold rates steady. Next focus: CPI and PPI prints.
The US export price index accelerated to 8.8% year-over-year in April from 5.6%, signaling persistent inflation that pushes back the timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders now reassess dollar positioning ahead of the next CPI print.
Sales hit $89.0 billion, beating the 1.4% forecast. Machinery led gains. The print lifts Q1 GDP and narrows the US-Canada rate gap, supporting the loonie.
The US retail sales control group rose 0.5% in April, down from 0.7% in March, signaling a consumer spending slowdown that could shift Fed rate-cut expectations and weigh on the dollar.
BNY urges India to cut fuel taxes and waive oil import costs to curb dollar demand. The call signals that the RBI’s intervention-heavy defense of the rupee may be running thin ahead of the budget.
MUFG sees higher JGB yields as a signal for a Bank of Japan rate hike, narrowing the rate differential that has driven USD/JPY toward the 158 intervention zone.
AUD/USD failed to rally on positive Trump-Xi outcomes as U.S. dollar strength and RBA dovish bets weighed. RBA minutes and U.S. data next.
The IEA’s supply-gap warning undercuts bullish trade-deal hopes, leaving WTI caught between two crosswinds. EIA data next week will show which force holds.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump told Xi he wants to open up China, a signal that could support the yuan and risk assets if trade tensions ease.
Dollar presses JPY158, the BOJ intervention line, while EUR/USD tests $1.17 and GBP/USD $1.35. Options expiries and momentum point to breakout; US retail sales next.
A confirmed summit would lower the odds of new US tariffs, potentially squeezing offshore yuan shorts and compressing the USD/CNY spread. Xi’s reply is the next concrete catalyst.
Xi’s banquet speech framed mutual respect. State media then warned of consequences for Taiwan meddling. The 24 Sept Trump-Xi meeting now carries a geopolitical tripwire for CNH and regional FX.
Bessent's comment suggests the soybean purchases were a one-off gesture, putting the yuan's recent gains at risk and shifting focus to Brazil.
Copper flirts with $6.80/lb as AI infrastructure spending ramps. A weekly close above the multi-year ceiling would break key resistance, with China imports and US ISM as the next catalysts.
Brown Brothers Harriman sees the dollar trapped in a range, with fiscal uncertainty offsetting yield support. The next break hinges on the Treasury refunding announcement.
Ireland's HICP rose 0.5% MoM in April, beating the 0.4% forecast. The 0.1pp beat adds to signs of sticky services inflation, putting the upcoming eurozone flash HICP in focus for EUR/USD direction.
Ireland CPI MoM fell to 0.5% from 1.6% in April, hinting at eurozone disinflation. EUR/USD hinges on the Eurozone-wide CPI flash before the ECB\u2019s June decision.
Ireland's April HICP rose 3.6% YoY, matching forecasts. The sticky print raises the risk of an upside surprise in the Eurozone HICP on April 30, which could support the euro against the dollar.
TD Securities flags a less dovish Bank of Canada, narrowing the rate-cut premium priced into the loonie. Next policy decision becomes the key test for USD/CAD direction.