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Headline inflation jumped on energy costs. The Bank of Canada’s core measures stayed subdued, leaving rate-cut expectations intact. Next: retail sales and GDP.
ING strategists see the dollar breakout as a direct result of a hawkish repricing of Fed policy, driven by sticky inflation and resilient activity data. The next CPI print will test the move.
The April industrial production beat pushes back Fed rate-cut expectations, widening yield differentials against the euro and sterling. Next catalyst: retail sales.
Crude oil cleared the $96.90 resistance, targeting the $106.00–$108.35 zone. Support at $93.90 now serves as the invalidation pivot. Confirmation of the breakout hinges on a daily close above the level and a successful retest of the new floor.
US industrial production rose 0.7% in April, beating the 0.3% forecast. Utilities output surged, partly on AI demand. The beat may delay Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar.
US capacity utilization hit 76.1% in April, beating the 75.8% forecast. The beat reinforces the hawkish Fed repricing, widening yield spreads and pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
The $13.5 billion increase may reflect gold revaluation, not fresh FX inflows. The finance ministry's next purchase plan will clarify the ruble's path.
Rising US rate expectations widen the yield gap, pushing USD/JPY higher, but Japanese officials’ warnings and intervention risk curb the sell-off. The next move hinges on upcoming US data and any verbal pushback from Tokyo.
Societe Generale expects the British pound to weaken against the dollar, adding to a cautious sterling outlook. Traders now watch UK inflation data and the Bank of England's next decision for confirmation of the rate-driven move.
Higher pump prices feed into headline CPI and risk second-round effects, DBS notes, complicating the Reserve Bank of India's easing timeline.
The New York Fed's manufacturing gauge jumped to 19.6, far above the 7.5 forecast, as new orders surged. The dollar strengthened on reduced rate-cut expectations.
Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities fell to $4.62B in March, well below the $11.4B consensus. The shortfall raises questions about foreign demand for Canadian assets and could weigh on the loonie ahead of key rate decisions.
March foreign portfolio investment fell to $3.9B from $25.36B, an 85% drop that removes a major source of CAD selling pressure. Next catalyst: Canada CPI.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index surged to 19.6 in May, far above the 7.5 consensus, signaling accelerating factory activity and boosting the dollar.
The 17% monthly surge masks a 1% year-over-year decline in actual starts and a stark Toronto-Vancouver divergence that complicates the rate-cut narrative for the Bank of Canada.
TD Securities sees the Fed holding rates through 2026, extending the high-for-longer dollar narrative and pressuring rate-sensitive currencies. Next test: the March FOMC meeting.
WTI surges past $104, 10Y yields hit 4.54%, equities drop 2% as Beijing ends with no trade deal. EUR/USD down to 1.1625, gold below $4,550. Next: U.S. data.
April starts jump to 279.3K vs 240K consensus, narrowing rate differential and putting next CPI release in focus for CAD bulls.
Trump-Xi summit failure forces markets to price a structural energy rerouting, sending UK 10-year yields up 18.1 bp and USD/JPY toward 160.
Deutsche Bank strategists see the dollar's yield advantage widening as US economic data stays strong, pressuring EUR/USD and commodity prices. The next payrolls and CPI prints will test the thesis.
The Canadian dollar sank to a new monthly low as risk-off bid lifted USD/CAD. The breakout reflects widening rate differentials and commodity drag. Next catalyst: Canadian retail sales and BoC rhetoric.
ING analysts argue the euro has not yet achieved a decisive global reserve currency shift. The EUR/USD pair remains rangebound as policy divergence persists.
The $6.3B weekly increase in India's foreign exchange reserves hands the RBI more intervention ammunition as the rupee faces headwinds from dollar strength.
WTI at $101.17 and Brent above $106 keep crude above the threshold that Goldman Sachs says could persist, threatening to fan inflation and pressure rate-sensitive currencies.
Trump claimed aligning views on Iran after meeting Xi. China's only response was a single sentence that offered no mediation. Oil's geopolitical premium and safe-haven demand remain intact.
Societe Generale sees real-rate differentials providing sustained support for the US dollar, challenging the bearish consensus. The next move hinges on upcoming CPI data and Fed minutes.
WTI crude surges 3.74% to $100.54 as Trump warns Iran, unwinding Strait peace trade. Supply draws and IEA deficit warning tighten the squeeze. The dollar reprices rate expectations next.
Diplomatic freeze after Trump's Beijing visit yields no mediation, lifting crude and yields while risk appetite crumbles. Weekend gap risk elevated for FX.
TD Securities analysts note that auto and energy sectors are driving Canadian factory sales, challenging the bearish CAD consensus. Heavy short positioning and a range-bound USD/CAD chart set up a potential breakdown.
Brent spot at $107.83 trades well above UBS's end-2026 target of $90 and March 2027 target of $85. Middle East supply risks and US-China trade talks present near-term crosswinds.