Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Falling crude prices ease India's import cost, supporting INR. USD/INR dips toward 95.70 as US-Iran talks fuel supply hopes. Next catalyst: RBI policy and dollar direction.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari flagged persistent energy and supply-chain risks, warning the Fed's credibility is at stake. Markets price an October hike chance. He says it is too soon to predict.
Standard Chartered sees a hawkish RBNZ repricing widening rate differentials, pulling yield-seeking flow into NZD. Next catalyst: the central bank's policy statement.
RBNZ hawkish stance supports NZD but Iran oil risks limit gains. Next triggers: NZ inflation data in July and US-Iran talks for NZD/USD direction.
Italy industrial sales jumped to 4.4% in March from 0.5%. The nominal beat does not shift the ECB rate narrative. Eurozone PMIs later this week are the next catalyst.
EUR/JPY hit a monthly high as yen weakness persists. Japanese authorities may intervene if the slide accelerates. US inflation data this week is the next test.
Oct-quarter CPI miss supports RBA hold. Commerzbank sees rate hike risk gone. AUD/USD yield disadvantage widens. Next catalyst: February RBA meeting.
GBP/JPY stays near one-month highs even as Mideast tensions support yen demand. Next move hinges on BoE data and any intervention from Japan.
Neel Kashkari warns inflation risk now dominates labour concerns, delaying expected Fed cuts and supporting the dollar against yen and euro. Treasury yields rise.
Rabobank argues the SNB's active intervention neutralises CHF safe-haven appeal. A framework for trading USD/CHF and EUR/CHF against central bank sell orders.
France consumer confidence fell to 82 in May, missing the 85 forecast. The soft print pressures EUR/USD as markets reassess ECB rate cut bets.
RBNZ's 4-3 split vote with Governor Breman casting the deciding hold lifts NZD. Swedish PPI accelerates to 4.7% y/y, keeping Riksbank pressure on. Next catalyst: May CPI.
An improved UK retail survey failed to boost sterling against the euro as geopolitical concerns dominated. The pair remains range-bound with UK CPI the next test.
EUR/GBP rises above 0.8550 after ECB hawkish signals widen rate differential. Next test: ECB account and UK CPI. Technical resistance at 0.8570.
Sterling edged higher after the previous session's selloff exhausted at a support zone. The bounce hinges on whether rate differentials and positioning align to extend the move.
Australian dollar sank after softer-than-expected CPI at 4.2% reinforced RBA pause expectations. Focus turns to next data for policy path.
Risk assets rally while central banks push back sharply. Forex traders face a divergence between market pricing and policy guidance. The trade focuses on short-end yields and the DXY.
April CPI fell to 4.2% yr, missing Westpac and market expectations. Underlying trimmed mean inflation still building. RBA will not shift stance on one soft print. AUD support at 0.6480.
The Swiss franc gains as the dollar sheds its safe-haven premium. This rotation favors CHF over USD. Next week's U.S. jobs data and Swiss CPI will decide the trend.
WTI crude holds $92.30 support after slump; gold capped at $4,620 resistance. These levels set the macro transmission path for USD/CAD and AUD/USD.
The dollar is losing ground despite rising geopolitical risk. Oil supply disruption fears complicate the Fed's rate path and shift forex positioning near 99.00.
RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% with a 3-3 split vote. Three members wanted an immediate 25bps hike. Inflation seen peaking at 4.3% in September. Next meeting is live for a rate increase.
New Zealand dollar gains as RBNZ projects terminal rate 3.28%; Australian core CPI at 22-month high keeps RBA on watch; BoJ signals June 16 hike.
The Canadian dollar flattens. Traders await fresh US-Iran deal developments. Oil supply risk and rate differentials keep USD/CAD range-bound. The next catalyst is a negotiation timeline.
A BoJ official says financial conditions remain easy, pushing back against hawkish speculation. The yen stays pressured as rate differentials and carry trade persist. Next BoJ meeting is key.
The RBNZ held rates in a split vote, warning an energy shock will require earlier tightening. The NZD repriced higher as markets adjusted to a steeper rate path.
April CPI slowdown reduces RBA hike probability, sending AUD/USD below 0.6600. Yield spread compression and position unwinding accelerate decline. Focus turns to June RBA meeting.
Australian April headline inflation at 4.2% vs 4.4% expected. The RBA rate cut timeline moves forward. AUD/USD breaks below 0.6600. Yield differential narrows.
Q1 Construction Work Done surges to 3.4% vs 0.9% expected. The beat resets RBA rate path odds and lifts AUD. Next catalyst: May RBA meeting and Q2 GDP.
Yen near May low, close to BOJ intervention zone. Iran war outlook pulls oil higher and complicates safe-haven dynamics. Next catalyst: US PCE data.