Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warns relying on AI productivity gains while inflation remains above target is risky. The dollar and yields react as markets price a prolonged hold.
Axios reports US and Iran reached a deal pending Trump approval. The geopolitical risk premium in the dollar and crude oil is unwinding. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are the direct beneficiaries. Trump's sign-off is the next catalyst.
ING sees sterling's political risk discount versus the euro fully unwound. That shift makes rate differentials and Eurozone fiscal stress the primary drivers for GBP/EUR.
April new home sales fell to 0.622M, missing estimates. The sharp decline signals rate sensitivity biting demand, with implications for the dollar's yield advantage and Fed rate path.
April new home sales fell to 622,000, missing the 670,000 estimate. Housing weakness may delay Fed rate normalization, pressuring the dollar.
UOB analysts see the RBA on extended hold, removing a clear directional catalyst for AUD/USD. Risk appetite, commodity prices, and the US dollar now drive the pair. The June meeting is the next decision point.
Scotiabank sees Canadian dollar weakness to 1.39 per USD as rate differentials widen and oil prices slip. Here's what drives the move.
BBH sees South Korean won supported by BoK hawkishness and undervaluation. Watch equity-beta and COT positioning for confirmation ahead of the August BoK statement.
The SARB held the repo rate at 7% as expected. The rand's next moves hinge on global risk appetite and domestic inflation data. The carry trade remains the key transmission channel for traders.
Initial claims rose to 215,000, above the 210,000 forecast. The dollar stayed flat as traders wait for a sustained labor-market softening. Next week’s print will test the trend.
ING analysts point to a narrowing CNB-ECB rate gap as the key driver of EUR/CZK upside. The koruna's yield advantage is shrinking with each CNB cut.
US durable goods orders surge 7.9% in April, far above 3.3% forecast. The strong data reduces Fed rate-cut odds, supporting the dollar against the euro and sterling.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K. The dollar's reaction depends on whether this is noise or the start of a trend. Here is the mechanism and the next catalyst.
Weekly US jobless claims climbed to 215,000, above the 211,000 consensus. The marginal miss leaves the Fed's higher-for-longer rate stance intact; the monthly payrolls report is the next real catalyst.
BNP Paribas sees US productivity gains allowing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, supporting the dollar. The next data releases will test this call.
ECB accounts show some members would not oppose a rate hike, tilting the policy outlook hawkish and narrowing EUR/USD yield differentials. Next catalyst: July 31 CPI.
ECB accounts show some policymakers pushed for a hike as inflation persisted. The split reshapes EUR/USD rate expectations and yield differentials.
Eurozone inflation data drives EUR/USD through rate differentials and ECB policy repricing. Positioning, PMIs, and wage data set up the next move.
Italy's April PPI dropped to 0.3% MoM from 4.4%, a sharp disinflation signal. The data supports a June ECB cut and weakens EUR/USD via rate differentials.
BBH sees the dollar retaining upside as the Fed stays restrictive while other central banks ease. Watch the FOMC dot plot and U.S. CPI for the next catalyst.
WTI crude slides under $90 as demand fears and a strong dollar outweigh Iran geopolitical risk, shifting focus to commodity currencies like CAD and NOK.
ABN AMRO sees higher oil pressuring EUR/USD via terms of trade. The late-2026 rebound depends on crude easing or ECB shift. Traders should watch COT data for confirmation.
Italy's 10-year bond yield fell 32 bps to 3.77%, compressing the BTP-Bund spread and reducing a key headwind for EUR/USD. Next test: May auction and eurozone CPI.
South Africa's April PPI doubled to 4.8%, testing whether the SARB will hold rates higher for longer and shifting USD/ZAR positioning.
Belgium’s CPI ticked to 4.08% in May, reinforcing sticky inflation in the Eurozone and supporting EUR/USD against short-euro positioning ahead of the Eurozone CPI release.
MUFG sees the Australian Dollar entering a corrective phase against the Kiwi. Rate differential compression and fading China momentum drive the tactical shift. Next catalyst: RBA meeting.
Sterling drops third straight day against dollar and euro as Middle East tensions and domestic political concern fuel risk-off flows. Watch BOE for next move.
Brent crude remains below $100, a level that caps geopolitical risk premium. Traders still see diplomacy surviving despite Strait of Hormuz escalation. Here's what breaks the oil ceiling and which FX crosses are most exposed.
JPMorgan Asset Management's EMEA CEO flags long-term dollar weakness on U.S. debt concerns. The fiscal-to-forex chain and next catalysts for traders.
Eurozone consumer confidence printed at -19 in May, matching expectations. No fresh catalyst for EUR/USD breakout. Focus shifts to ECB June 6 and US PCE May 31.