Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
The rand recovered after the SARB raised rates to 7%, the first hike since 2023. The rally may be a positioning squeeze rather than a structural shift. Next catalyst: US CPI.
NZD/USD tests resistance after RBNZ hawkish pivot. Short-squeeze risk and yield spread dynamics set up a binary breakout or rejection. Employment data next.
Euro zone's four largest economies report third month of inflation above 2% as fuel cost pass-through broadens, delaying ECB cut timeline.
Schmid's hawkish stance challenges market bets on rate cuts. Persistent energy inflation could keep USD bid, pressure EUR/USD. Next catalyst: oil prices and more Fed speakers.
Indian rupee closed at 95 per dollar, its strongest single-day gain in two months, driven by RBI intervention and a drop in crude oil prices.
WTI crude fell 13% in May, its worst month since April 2025, as a US-Iran ceasefire deal threatens to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 87.60 support zone is the key level to watch.
WTI crude breaks below $86.50 as US-Iran truce extension strips geopolitical premium. Lower oil pressures CAD, NOK and shifts inflation bets. Next trigger: US inventory report.
DBS argues ECB rate hikes are already priced, making EUR/USD's next move dependent on US data and Fed policy rather than euro-zone catalysts.
Japan spent $73.5B on yen-buying intervention last month. The yen remains near triggering levels as yield gap and carry trade persistence explain limited impact. Next catalyst: BoJ meeting.
DBS flags the June FOMC dot plot and inflation data as key for dollar direction. The meeting tests the new chair's credibility on the rate path.
Five traders say RBI sold dollars ahead of Friday's spot open to slow rupee decline. How the intervention alters carry trade risk and what to watch next for USD/INR.
BoE Governor Bailey's 'no urgency' on rate hikes narrows GBP yield differential vs dollar as Iran deal uncertainty bolsters safe-haven flows. Next BoE meeting is key.
Italy's first-quarter GDP rose 0.8% year-on-year, above the 0.7% consensus. The stronger growth reduces pressure on the ECB to cut rates, supporting the euro. Next catalyst: ECB minutes.
Italy GDP beat at 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast lowers ECB rate-cut odds. EUR/USD gets a tactical lift, but eurozone CPI and ECB minutes are the next test.
Bailey's no-urgency remark dismantles the rate premium boosting sterling. Cable slips toward 1.3400. The dollar strengthens. Next test: UK CPI and wage data.
Bailey puts Middle East conflict at center of BoE outlook, raising bar for rate cuts. GBP/USD exposed as rate differential narrows. Next MPC meeting tests guidance shift.
Dollar index near 99.00 as traders weigh de-escalation; oil risk premium drops, narrowing rate differentials. Focus on USD/JPY 99 handle and EUR/USD 1.1050 break.
Bailey says BoE will tolerate inflation overshoot due to Iran uncertainty and weak growth. That weakens sterling and supports gilts. Next MPC meeting in focus.
Italy May CPI accelerates to 3.2% y/y, matching forecasts. The HICP at 3.3% complicates the ECB's easing timeline. Eurozone-wide CPI next.
Italy CPI rose 0.4% MoM in May, beating the 0.3% forecast. The print complicates the ECB's June rate decision and adds uncertainty to EUR/USD positioning.
Greece retail sales growth slowed to 3% in March from 4.6%, the weakest in three months. The print tests the ECB's rate path and raises stakes for upcoming eurozone GDP and retail sales data.
RBI to hold at 5.25% in June. Majority expects a year-end hike on oil and rupee risks. Implications for USD/INR and carry trade.
RBI flags Iran risk to the rupee and lists steps to manage forex volatility. Oil, dollar flows, and the policy path are key watchpoints.
North Rhine-Westphalia CPI dropped 0.2% in May, the first MoM decline since January. The data strengthens the ECB's case for a June rate cut and pressures EUR/USD below 1.0800. Next catalyst: national German CPI.
Hesse's 2.6% CPI reading joins NRW and Bavaria in showing cooling inflation, reinforcing market bets on an ECB rate cut as soon as July.
Spain's current account surplus rose to €4.61B in March, but lagging data won't shift EUR/USD ahead of the ECB June meeting. Focus is on the eurozone composite PMI.
Private sector credit rose to 9.2% in April from 8.5%, reducing the case for a near-term SARB rate cut. Banks benefit, rand gets modest support.
Bavaria's May CPI cooled to 2.6%, lowering German inflation expectations and reinforcing the case for an ECB cut at the June meeting.
Germany's May unemployment fell by 12,000, a surprise vs expected +10K. The broader labour market softens further, boosting ECB rate cut bets. Watch EUR/USD support at 1.08.
CAD drops to 1.3800 as weak oil dents export revenue. Canadian GDP data will decide if the break holds or fades. Watch BoC rate-cut bets and USD firming.