Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
EUR/USD slides as risk aversion lifts the dollar. With no single catalyst, positioning unwinds. Policy divergence between the ECB and Fed caps euro recovery. Next test: US CPI support at 1.07.
Yen at 160 per dollar as BOJ speech looms. Tech records mask a hawkish Fed repricing. Gold, bitcoin slide. Private credit cracks show liquidity risk spreading.
Canadian dollar weakens despite oil rally as US-Canada yield spread widens. Fade CAD bounces near 1.3720-1.3750; October jobs data is next binary event.
Iran fired 10 ballistic missiles at US bases in Kuwait, sending Brent higher and USD/JPY to 160. Japan warns of intervention. Australia GDP misses. Section 301 tariffs reset.
USTR proposes tiered Section 301 tariffs on 60 nations. 10% on EU, Canada; 12.5% on Japan, India, China. July 6 comment deadline. Dollar, yen, rupee exposed.
The US Dollar Index is flat as US-Iran nuclear deal talks hit uncertainty. Here's why the geopolitical risk premium is missing and what could break the calm.
Australia's Q1 GDP grew 0.3% qoq, missing 0.5% forecast, as exports fell 1.1% and mining declined. The miss weakens the case for RBA hawkishness, putting AUD/USD support levels at risk ahead of May jobs data.
Japan's PMI Services fell to 50.0 in May, ending a year of expansion. Record cost pressures complicate the BOJ's tightening path and keep the yen under yield differential pressure.
Rupee set for weaker open after Gulf hostilities resume. RBI intervention likely near 83.50. Carry trade appeal fades as risk premium widens.
Australia Q1 GDP rose 0.3% vs 0.5% forecast. Domestic demand added 1pp but imports wiped 0.8pp. RBA rate path hinges on Q2 data and war inflation.
NZD/USD snapped a two-day losing streak after China's manufacturing PMI signaled accelerating factory activity. The move through commodity demand and RBNZ rate expectations.
Australia's 0.3% Q1 GDP miss pulls the AUD/JPY cross from its multi-decade high, shifting RBA rate expectations. The next catalyst: August RBA meeting and May employment data.
China services PMI beat at 54.4 vs 52.3 consensus reduces near-term RMB depreciation risk, supporting AUD and CNH. Next catalyst: composite PMI and trade data.
Australia's Q1 2026 GDP grew 0.3% q/q, well below RBA projections. The slowdown pressures the AUD and shifts rate cut expectations. Next catalyst: April CPI.
Missile strikes near Strait of Hormuz inject risk premium into crude. Next catalyst: US response and tanker insurance rates.
USD/JPY holds near 160 as the market discounts BOJ intervention credibility. The carry trade dominates. Only a shift in rate differentials or a BOJ hike can break the pattern. This week's US data is key.
Japan services PMI flatlined at 50.0 in May as business costs surged to a 43-month high on Middle East war disruption, ending 13 months of sector expansion.
Japan's ¥3.1 trillion deficit-financed budget adds JGB supply uncertainty as USD/JPY tests 160. Energy subsidy defers adjustment but does not fix current account.
Japan's Jibun Bank Services PMI printed at 50.0 in May, matching expectations. The neutral reading removes a catalyst for BOJ rate hikes, keeping yen under pressure with USD/JPY biased higher.
US forces struck after Iran's attack. USD/JPY is the primary safe-haven vehicle. Watch for escalation or de-escalation signals to set the next leg.
Japan's Katayama warns on yen as USD/JPY nears 152. Verbal intervention targets speculative positioning. Next trigger: a close above 152.50 or BOJ policy on June 14.
New Zealand's Q1 terms of trade fell 2.0% q/q, double the expected decline. Export prices slumped 2.7%. The data reinforces RBNZ rate cut case and weighs on NZD/USD ahead of May 22 OCR decision.
Services PMI beat to 48.7 but contraction persists. AUD/USD unmoved. Wednesday's GDP report is the real catalyst for the pair.
Australia's Composite PMI beat the 47.8 forecast at 48.7. The smaller contraction reduces RBA rate-cut urgency. AUD/USD holds gains ahead of Q1 GDP.
Canada's trade minister confirmed talks with the US are active while warning against expecting quick resolution. The practical read for CAD traders: wait for binding outcomes.
Crude oil's symmetrical triangle shows a higher swing low at $88.90 and a bullish reversal. A close above $97.85 is the first step toward $99.34 resistance. Traders watch for confirmation before the July 20 apex.
Natural gas holds support at $3.10, testing the 10-day MA and trendline. A break above $3.23 would signal recovery, impacting USD/CAD and EUR/NOK through inflation and terms of trade.
Analyst warns Australia Q1 GDP likely 0.3% q/q vs 0.5% consensus. China services PMI adds second catalyst. AUD/USD faces dual risk on June 3.
DBS raises its year-end 2026 USD/PHP forecast to 62.7, signaling sustained peso weakness through delayed Fed cuts and lagging BSP policy. Next test: US CPI and Philippine trade data.
AUD/USD resilience this week comes from stronger Chinese data, not RBA policy. The transmission runs through iron ore, the yuan, and short covering. Key level: 0.6700.