Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
RBNZ Shadow Board majority recommends hold at 2.25%. Three dissenters call for an immediate hike. The split signals a tightening bias, with OCR expected to rise to 2.75-3.75% range.
Trump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated.' Indian rupee and bonds may open stronger. Oil drop would ease trade deficit, support RBI policy flexibility.
CAD gains limited as oil slides on Iran peace hopes; USDCAD tests key support at 1.3400. Next cue: EIA report and BoC policy path.
Dollar slipped in Asia on Hormuz deal hopes, oil below $100. Trump administration cautious. Analysis of transmission through rates, yields, and positioning for forex traders.
Singapore Q1 GDP surged 6.0% y/y, beating estimates. But the trade ministry held its 2.0–4.0% forecast, citing Iran war risks. How this affects SGD, MAS policy, and Asian FX.
WTI crude fell 5% as diplomatic signals point to a Strait of Hormuz reopening. The move reflects a positioning unwind, not a demand shift. Next catalyst: formal agreement or May 28 Core PCE.
EUR/USD climbs near 1.1650 as US-Iran peace progress weakens safe-haven dollar demand. The pair eyes resistance levels ahead of May 28 Core PCE release.
AUD/USD pushes through 0.7150 as US-Iran peace deal hits the tape. Lower oil expectations and a short squeeze amplify the move. May 28 Core PCE will test durability.
Hong Kong, US, UK holidays drain liquidity on May 25. EUR/USD and USD/JPY face erratic fills and wider spreads. Reduce size or wait for May 26 retail sales.
Iran talks stall on uranium and Strait control, splitting WTI and Brent. The divergence signals a dollar tailwind and pressure on CAD and NOK. Key levels on USDCAD and USDNOK.
Core PCE lands May 28 after three hot prints. Yields at multi-year highs, Warsh at the Fed, AI valuations exposed. The damage path: rates, dollar, gold, and crowded tech bets.
June natural gas fell 3.68% to $2.905 as weather models turned seasonal. Storage surplus at 149 Bcf above average caps upside. Watch $2.865–$2.800 for next move.
Brussels rejected the UK's proposed single market for goods, a reset attempt that revives Brexit uncertainty for GBP. Next focus is on UK's response.
UOB sees Singapore dollar with mild bullish bias against US dollar. The pair remains locked in a tight range. A breakout depends on upcoming US CPI data and Fed rate path.
Producer price pressures are building across Southeast Asia's six largest economies. The transmission to consumer inflation could force central banks to reverse their pause.
CFTC oil net longs rose 2.7K contracts to 172.6K, a second weekly gain. Positioning remains below the five-year average, leaving room for further upside without overcrowding risk.
The latest COT data shows AUD net long positions rose by just 600 contracts. Speculative conviction is flat, making the pair vulnerable to RBA meeting minutes and China data.
Euro net longs fell 6.7K contracts to €33.5K. Positioning remains top-heavy near the 68th percentile, creating asymmetric risk for EUR/USD.
ECB warns EU ministers that expanding euro stablecoins could reduce bank lending and complicate rate control, with implications for EUR/USD and forex markets.
OCBC recommends buying dips in the Singapore dollar vs. USD, citing the MAS policy band as a range anchor. The trade hinges on US CPI and the July MAS review.
Crude oil drops to $94.73 on an Iran nuclear deal. Consumer sentiment sours on gas prices, while Warsh-Fed reform talk adds uncertainty to the dollar and rate path.
ING sees Bank of Korea's hawkish language shift supporting the Won via yield differentials and reduced easing risk. The next policy meeting is the test.
Warsh's pledge to lead Fed reform shifts focus from rate cuts to institutional change. A rules-based approach would compress yield differentials and weaken the dollar. Watch for dot-plot revisions.
The yen is under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising energy import costs. Here's how the transmission mechanism works and what to watch next.
New Fed Chairman Warsh faces political pressure to ease, but low unemployment and reaccelerating small business optimism argue against rate cuts, supporting the dollar.
Scotiabank expects US dollar support into holiday as risk stays contained. Thin liquidity and year-end squaring reinforce safe-haven bids. Next catalyst: early January data prints.
Crude oil cleared $96.90 resistance, opening the path to a $106-108 target zone. Holding above $93.90 support is critical for continuation. Watch daily close for confirmation.
Crude oil dipped on another optimistic Iran headline. The pattern of daily reports ahead of the US open is testing the geopolitical risk premium. Traders look for official confirmation.
Fed Governor Waller calls for dropping easing bias from FOMC statement, opening door to rate hikes. The shift reprices rate expectations, lifting the dollar. January FOMC meeting is the first test.
Fed Governor Waller's call to remove the easing bias from the statement signals a hawkish shift. Here is the transmission path for the dollar, yields, and risk assets that follows.