Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Asian stocks surged, oil slid 4%+ after US-Iran peace deal. Dollar fell, yen rose. Brent crude hit $72.80. Lower oil prices ease inflation, boost import-dependent economies.
Iran vows retaliation after Israeli strike on Beirut, rejecting a U.S. restraint offer. Trump privately rebuked Netanyahu. The peace deal he called close now faces a setback.
Westpac sees crude averaging $85 in Q4 2026 as ceasefire hopes unwind the supply premium. The bank points to slowing demand and rising OPEC+ output. Next test: the June OPEC+ meeting.
Scotiabank strategists say the dollar's run against the Canadian dollar is overextended near 1.4000. Fair value sits at 1.3750, technical resistance looms, and the oil correlation is broken.
Easing sanctions talk lifts oil supply expectations, weighs on the dollar. Next catalyst: the timeline for nuclear negotiations. Dollar index down 0.8% on the week.
Canada's central bank held rates steady. US inflation accelerated to 4.2%, pushing the loonie lower. Trade surplus widened. CUSMA review looms. Fed meeting with Warsh next.
Manufacturing sales seen up 4.6%, retail up 0.6%. Population decline skews per-capita GDP. US retail sales details watched for gasoline squeeze on spending.
Brent crude fell more than 4% and the dollar weakened after Iran's foreign minister said a nuclear deal 'has never been closer.' The FX and oil outlook hinges on confirmation from Washington.
Michigan sentiment rose to 48.9 in June as gasoline prices eased, but inflation expectations remain elevated. The dollar's reaction depends on whether the data shifts Fed rate path bets.
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, citing the war's impact on inflation; it signalled no tightening cycle. Growth forecasts were revised down, and the euro's reaction was muted.
Brent's plunge below $86 as a US-Iran deal nears keeps the dollar defensive while CAD slides. EUR and GBP gain. The Sunday memorandum signing is the next catalyst.
Markets price 95% chance of RBA hold Tuesday after three hikes. The Aussie dollar's next move depends on housing, China trade, and the Iran deal.
Iran deal details show US concessions resetting expectations to late February. Oil falls 3.5%, dollar steady, European stocks rally 1.5%+. SpaceX debut in focus.
DAX rises 0.8% after Trump's Iran ceasefire comment; oil slump boosts German exporters. Next catalyst: Wednesday's industrial production data.
The dollar index sits at 100 after a 4% rally from January lows. Geopolitical headlines and technical resistance set up a binary outcome for FX, commodities, and equities.
IRNA says no commitment to restore Hormuz to pre-war status. Toll system may persist, keeping oil supply risks elevated and crude above $84.
A US-Iran MoU could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing the top oil supply risk and lowering inflation expectations. The dollar falls; risk assets rally. A later demand shock may force rate hikes, data dependent.
WTI falls 4% after Iran publishes MOU calling for sanctions removal. First break under the 100-day MA since January, with $80 next. The 60-day Hormuz test awaits.
The pound rose for its best week in a month as dollar weakness on peace optimism overrode weak UK retail sales and business confidence. Next test: UK GDP. GBP/USD resistance near 1.2850; a break targets 1.2900, traders said.
Three events dominate the forex calendar: Warsh's first Fed meeting, Trump's Iran summit, and a UK by-election that could trigger a leadership challenge. The outcome sequence may amplify or offset dollar moves.
ECB hikes 25bp, Lagarde points to one more in September. Trump's Iran peace deal talk crashes oil, sparks risk-on. US PPI adds hawkish pressure on yields.
German final CPI matched the preliminary 2.6% in May. Core inflation edged up to 2.5% and services held at 3.1%, keeping the ECB on alert for a July hike.
WTI crude breaks below $89 as Hormuz closure stalls supply restart; natural gas holds above $3.028 support. Traders target oil at $84.11 and gas at $3.099–$3.153.
Bundesbank's Nagel says ECB could hike again in July after Thursday's 25bp increase, as Middle East conflict spreads inflation from energy to services.
NZ manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in May, slipping back below the 50 mark. Weakening demand and higher energy costs drove the decline, while a split between small and large firms widened.
The $4.7B Gordie Howe bridge opening is delayed after Trump objected. Carney calls it 'time well spent' but Dilkens says Canada shouldn't 'act subserviently'.
New Zealand's manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.9 in May, with micro-firms struggling while large firms held up. BNZ expects a flat winter before a later recovery, limiting the immediate RBNZ policy read-through.
The S&P 500 posted its biggest gain in two months as Trump canceled Iran strikes and signaled a weekend peace deal. Oil tumbled, yields dropped, and the dollar weakened. The rally's durability depends on the weekend.
Asian stocks rally, oil drops 3% after Trump announces Iran truce. Light data calendar leaves focus on deal details and risk-on momentum.
USD/MXN fell to 17.23 after Trump questioned USMCA. HSBC stays neutral on the Peso, citing carry at 11.25% and positioning that treats the comment as noise. Banxico's rate decision is the next test.