Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Dollar index near 99.00 as traders weigh de-escalation; oil risk premium drops, narrowing rate differentials. Focus on USD/JPY 99 handle and EUR/USD 1.1050 break.
Bailey says BoE will tolerate inflation overshoot due to Iran uncertainty and weak growth. That weakens sterling and supports gilts. Next MPC meeting in focus.
Italy May CPI accelerates to 3.2% y/y, matching forecasts. The HICP at 3.3% complicates the ECB's easing timeline. Eurozone-wide CPI next.
Italy CPI rose 0.4% MoM in May, beating the 0.3% forecast. The print complicates the ECB's June rate decision and adds uncertainty to EUR/USD positioning.
Greece retail sales growth slowed to 3% in March from 4.6%, the weakest in three months. The print tests the ECB's rate path and raises stakes for upcoming eurozone GDP and retail sales data.
RBI to hold at 5.25% in June. Majority expects a year-end hike on oil and rupee risks. Implications for USD/INR and carry trade.
RBI flags Iran risk to the rupee and lists steps to manage forex volatility. Oil, dollar flows, and the policy path are key watchpoints.
North Rhine-Westphalia CPI dropped 0.2% in May, the first MoM decline since January. The data strengthens the ECB's case for a June rate cut and pressures EUR/USD below 1.0800. Next catalyst: national German CPI.
Hesse's 2.6% CPI reading joins NRW and Bavaria in showing cooling inflation, reinforcing market bets on an ECB rate cut as soon as July.
Spain's current account surplus rose to €4.61B in March, but lagging data won't shift EUR/USD ahead of the ECB June meeting. Focus is on the eurozone composite PMI.
Private sector credit rose to 9.2% in April from 8.5%, reducing the case for a near-term SARB rate cut. Banks benefit, rand gets modest support.
Bavaria's May CPI cooled to 2.6%, lowering German inflation expectations and reinforcing the case for an ECB cut at the June meeting.
Germany's May unemployment fell by 12,000, a surprise vs expected +10K. The broader labour market softens further, boosting ECB rate cut bets. Watch EUR/USD support at 1.08.
CAD drops to 1.3800 as weak oil dents export revenue. Canadian GDP data will decide if the break holds or fades. Watch BoC rate-cut bets and USD firming.
Japan's finance minister confirms OpenAI's GPT-5.5 access for financial institutions to fight cyberattacks. What this means for banking security and AI adoption.
The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey shows households became more attentive to prices after the Iran conflict, a signal that could delay rate cuts and support the euro.
The US Dollar Index holds near 99 as renewed US-Iran deal talks reduce safe-haven demand. A confirmed agreement would pressure the dollar further; without it, the fear bid may return.
Tokyo CPI slows to 2.9% YoY, reducing BOJ pressure. Intervention risk near 151.50 caps USD/JPY upside despite Fed rate cut repricing. Next catalyst: PCE Friday.
WTI crude held near $86.50 after a tentative US-Iran ceasefire extension. The risk premium built on managed money longs is unwinding. Focus shifts to support levels and next diplomatic steps.
Spain's May CPI slowed to 0.1% MoM, strengthening the case for a June ECB cut. The eurozone HICP release will be the next catalyst for EUR/USD direction.
France's final Q1 GDP contraction of -0.1% q/q shifts ECB rate-cut expectations and tightens EUR/USD range. Next data points will test recession trajectory.
April import prices rose 1.2% m/m, beating forecasts. Energy jumped 31% y/y. German state CPI today will test whether pipeline inflation is feeding through to consumers.
Sweden’s Q1 GDP matched forecasts at 1.6% YoY, leaving SEK rangebound. The inline print validates Riksbank patience and keeps EUR/SEK direction tied to ECB policy and risk appetite.
Sweden Q1 GDP matched forecasts at -0.2% QoQ, leaving the krona flat. The Riksbank's rate path stays anchored. May CPI is the next catalyst.
April import price index matches expectations at 5.3% YoY, removing a potential hawkish ECB trigger. EUR/USD stays range-bound as state CPI data become the next catalyst.
The 1.2% MoM beat for German import prices adds inflation risk ahead of the ECB June decision. EUR/USD remains range-bound; the data favors a hawkish tilt. Next catalyst: June 6.
Japan's jobs-to-applicants ratio rises and unemployment falls. Consumer confidence slips. Yen range-bound as yield spread dominates. Next catalyst: Tokyo CPI.
RBI's forex gains surged 52% to 1.69 trillion rupees ($17.7B), bolstering balance sheet and INR stability. Annual report reveals FX income surge, key for EM forex positioning.
Australian Dollar slides as RBA rate hike odds fade, widening yield gap with USD. AUD/USD tests 0.6500 support, speculative shorts at 25k contracts. Next: April CPI, Fed core PCE.
April headline inflation ran to near 3% on energy costs. May consensus holds at 2.9%. Core spillover risk could shift ECB rate path. State data builds toward May 31 Eurostat print.