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S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slip as US VP delays Iran trip for nuclear talks. Dollar index breaks above 100.55 resistance, pushing EUR/USD and GBP/USD to 3-month lows.
UK May budget deficit hit £23.3bn, the largest for the month outside 2020. Extra gilt supply pushes yields higher, creating two-sided risk for sterling ahead of the autumn budget and BOE meeting.
ECB's Pierre Wunsch said a July rate hike remains possible if core inflation persists, even as the U.S.-Iran deal lowers oil prices and eases headline inflation.
UK retail sales rose 1.2% in May, nearly double the 0.5% consensus. The three-month trend is soft at 0.4%. The BoE rate-cut path remains on track for August. Sterling held near 1.3370. The next key data is June CPI on July 16.
US equity futures slipped after Vance delayed Iran talks. Oil holds at 200-day MA; dollar index clears 100.55 resistance. Gold nears June low.
Japan's core CPI remained at 1.4% in May as fuel subsidies capped energy costs. The soft print keeps pressure on the BoJ's normalization path ahead of the July 30-31 meeting.
Yen slides past 161 per dollar, nearing a 40-year low. Finance officials warn of intervention as structural factors. U.S. yields and BOJ policy, keep pressure on the currency.
The dollar surged past recent resistance as Fed rate-hike bets reemerged. EUR/USD sank below 1.08, gold dropped, and risk appetite faltered ahead of key payrolls data.
The rupee rose for a fifth consecutive session, reaching a six-week high as dollar weakness and RBI intervention supported the currency.
GfK consumer confidence held at -23 in June, beating expectations. Beneath the headline, youth confidence fell 11 points and major purchase intentions stayed at two-year lows, tilting the balance toward caution for sterling.
GfK survey shows UK consumer confidence steady at -13 in June, but younger cohort turns more pessimistic on finances. Divergence by age matters for BOE rate path and sterling outlook.
New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed to NZ$800M in May from NZ$1.92B in April as imports surged 21% month-over-month, complicating the RBNZ rate path ahead of the July meeting.
Crude oil tests the 200-day moving average at $74.37 after a symmetrical triangle breakdown. A hold here targets $82; a break opens $72.73 and $68.81.
Japan inflation below 2% for four months tests BOJ's tightening path after this week's rate hike. April minutes and thin liquidity add risk for yen crosses.
Natural gas rose after a smaller-than-expected storage build. WTI and Brent bounced on the U.S.-Iran deal, but the 60-day negotiation window keeps supply risk alive.
The dollar hit its highest in over a year after the Fed signaled a rate hike remains on the table, overriding the dollar-negative implications of the US-Iran agreement. Traders see the 101 area as the next target.
The RBI will conduct a Rs 1 lakh crore 3-day variable rate repo auction on June 19 to address a liquidity deficit. Banking stocks may see near-term relief.
Natural gas is flat ahead of a holiday, with the $3 level as support and $3.50 as a bullish trigger. Supply builds and a Qatari export recovery are capping any rally for now.
BoE holds at 3.75% on a 7-2 vote as core inflation undershoots and the labour market cools. EUR/GBP forecast to move toward 0.89 on a 6-12 month horizon.
The Czech National Bank raised its benchmark rate to 2.25% on Thursday, the first increase since 2021. The koruna strengthened 0.4% against the euro.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 10.3 in June, above the 10.0 estimate, with prices paid jumping and new orders climbing. The report is the latest to show sticky inflation.
The US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices down 4%. The move removes a key inflation risk for G10 central banks even as core inflation remains sticky. That shifts the policy calculus.
The dollar index climbed to its highest since May 2025 as the SNB and BoE left rates unchanged, widening the yield advantage. EUR/USD tested support near 1.0800, GBP/USD slipped below $1.24.
Sterling dropped below $1.24 after the Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, extending a pause since the U.S.-Iran war began. Traders now expect no tightening until February CPI confirms persistent inflation.
The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75% on a 7-2 vote, with two members pushing for a cut. The split sets up a data-dependent August decision for sterling.
The rupee's longest winning streak in a year, driven by exporter flows and RBI tolerance, now faces a test from US payrolls. Infosys and Wipro margins under pressure.
Bitcoin fell below $64K after hawkish Warsh comments triggered a risk-asset sell-off. Altcoin selling hit a five-year high at $209B net volume. Strategy's funding mechanism is broken. Hayes is buying ETH.
Two state-run bank officials say the rupee's oil-driven rally runs into structural dollar demand from RBI's forward liabilities and corporate interest payments, keeping the band at 83.70-84.00.
UK annual CPI held at 2.8% but monthly price growth halved expectations, pushing sterling lower ahead of BoE and SNB decisions. GBP/USD support zone at 1.3300–1.3330 under threat.
The SNB left rates at 0% on Thursday, calling the rise in inflation to 0.6% energy-driven and temporary. It reaffirmed willingness to intervene against rapid franc strength.