Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Citi cuts AUD/USD and NZD/USD forecasts as US yields and dollar strength pressure commodity currencies. June losses accelerate; next test is US jobs report.
Goods-producing sectors expanded 1% with oil drilling surging, services managed 0.1%. May data points to firmer Q2 growth, keeping the BoC on hold. The Fed tilted hawkish, widening the policy gap.
Brent crude's decline from $120 to $73 reverses the stagflationary impulse, benefiting the eurozone and reshaping Fed rate bets. UK politics, ECB meeting, and US jobs data are next catalysts.
Crude oil wiped out all war-driven gains, closing near $68. A bounce from the 67-68 support zone could target $79.20 resistance. Here's what would confirm or break the setup.
August natural gas futures hit a five-month high as heat forecasts and rising LNG exports challenge the $3.465 resistance level. The breakout setup is built.
May wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as expected, leaving the data neutral for the dollar and rate path. The print confirms a modest inventory contribution to Q2 GDP and does not signal a demand shift.
Nordea sees the euro recovering to 1.21 by 2027, calling the dollar rally overdone relative to rate differentials. The bank's strategists say positioning is stretched.
Brent crude fell below $70 after a spike above $80. Julius Baer says higher oil is unlikely to trigger a recession, shifting the rate-path debate toward demand signals.
Credit Agricole says the dollar rally is fully priced, positioning is stretched, and Friday's PCE print could trigger a pullback in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Dollar index hit 106.20 as Fed holds rates while ECB cuts. July payrolls will test whether the greenback extends its run.
Asian equity markets fell sharply overnight, European bourses opened lower, and the dollar held near highs as traders awaited Fed speakers Waller and Williams.
ECB cuts bank reporting by a third and eases governance rules after industry pushback, trimming recurring data requests and softening board oversight standards.
GBP/EUR trades at €1.1600 as German consumer confidence drops for a second month, widening the policy gap with the BoE. The UK services PMI is the next catalyst.
Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says core inflation is still trending the wrong way, echoing Chair Warsh on avoiding rate-path speculation. The dollar held gains as traders trimmed cut bets.
New York Fed's Williams now sees inflation returning to 2% only in 2028, pushing rate-cut expectations deeper into the year while the dollar holds its ground.
Yen hovers at 160 per dollar, near a 40-year low, as traders await US CPI for the next catalyst. Record short positioning and BOJ warnings set up a volatile week. See the full analysis at AlphaScala.
USD/JPY sits at 147.60, within striking distance of the 147.80 level that triggered Japan's last intervention. The carry trade pays 530 bps annually. BOJ meets Sep. 22.
South Korea's shift to 24-hour won trading may amplify volatility and test dealer risk systems, traders say. The first major test comes after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on the first Friday of the new regime.
Tokyo's core CPI is forecast to rise 1.6% in June, the first acceleration in eight months, driven by energy costs. The data will test BOJ's rate path and yen support.
Natural gas compresses near $3.38 resistance in a broadening wedge. A close above $3.38 triggers a bullish breakout; below $3.06 signals a bearish turn.
WTI crude tests $72 after failing to break $70.50 support. Brent climbs above $75 as traders price in a longer U.S.-Iran deal timeline. Natural gas rises on warmer weather forecasts.
Lloyds expects the dollar rally to continue, fueled by a hawkish Fed and resilient US data. EUR/USD faces downside to 1.07 as policy divergence with the ECB widens.
GBP/USD near 1.3200 after a slide to a fresh low. HSBC warns of three drags: widening policy divergence, political risk and dollar strength. UK CPI next week is the next test.
AUD/USD near 0.6905 after a 3.8% June slide. ANZ cut growth forecasts, citing RBA hikes and weak global demand. The dollar rally and rate divergence keep pressure on the Aussie.
The euro is on track for its biggest monthly drop in a year. The Fed's hawkish tilt and dovish ECB signals widened the yield gap. PCE data this week could shift expectations.
Dollar holds gains as PCE inflation stays sticky, keeping Fed hawkish. Risk rebound from Micron fails to weaken dollar. Gold breaks $4,000, silver below $60. Next catalyst: July payrolls.
Brazil central bank forecasts inflation near 3% target by 2028, but persistent overshoot through 2027. Higher Selic supports real via carry, growth risks remain.
The dollar index pushed past 104 as hot data cemented rate-hike bets. The rupee slipped past 82.50 and Indian IT stocks face headwinds. Next: US CPI and RBI policy.
Sterling is on pace for its worst month against the dollar since July after PM Starmer's resignation added political uncertainty to fragile UK outlook.
Crude erased all war-time gains to settle near 68.00. The 67.00-68.00 zone has held before, but inventories are building and OPEC+ discipline is in question. A bounce needs a catalyst to reach 79.20.