
Private insurers lagged the market but business metrics tell a different story: APE jumped 8-36% and margins widened. Kotak expects the sector to refocus on growth.
India’s private insurance stocks have lagged the broader market by 7-15 percent over the last three months, dragged by regulatory uncertainty and the impact of GST changes. But the underlying business data points in the opposite direction, according to a Kotak Institutional Equities report.
Life insurers posted annualised premium equivalent growth of 8-36 percent in the June quarter. Margins expanded 200-300 basis points for several players. Kotak credited protection products such as term insurance, along with traditional savings and annuity products, for the improvement.
Health insurers fared similarly. New business rose 37-41 percent in the first quarter. Claims performance strengthened: the combined ratio, which tracks how much premium income is consumed by claims and expenses, improved 160 basis points for Star Health and 300 basis points for Niva Bupa.
The gains came despite the GST exemption on insurance products, which wiped out input tax credits for carriers. Insurers passed along the benefit to customers. Term insurance premiums fell across the board, Kotak said.
Uncertainty around proposed commission rules had weighed on sentiment. With the commission guideline changes pushed back, Kotak said it expects insurers to refocus on growth. “We expect insurance companies to focus on growth and have a decent year,” the report said.
Kotak flagged one risk: higher motor third-party claims for diversified non-life insurers. It kept a positive stance on life insurers, calling valuations attractive even with the regulatory overhang. For private life players, it expects moderate mid-teen growth over the next few years. LIC is likely to see more measured expansion, the report said.
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