Keyera Targets C$2.2B EBITDA by 2029 on Montney NGL Growth

Keyera Corp. laid out a five-year growth plan Tuesday that targets C$2.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2029, up from C$1.4 billion in 2025. The Calgary-based midstream company expects to spend C$2.5 billion to C$3 billion on growth capital over the period, including a new 50,000-barrel-per-day fractionator at its Fort Saskatchewan site and expansions at its Rimbey and Wapiti gas plants.

The plan hinges on rising Montney natural gas liquids volumes. New pipeline capacity is expected to let producers ramp up NGL output, and Keyera's fractionation and storage assets sit at the downstream end of that supply chain. The company gets direct exposure to rising volumes without taking on drilling risk.

Keyera set 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance at C$1.5 billion to C$1.6 billion, roughly in line with the C$1.55 billion consensus estimate compiled by Bloomberg. Free cash flow should land between C$600 million and C$700 million this year after sustaining capital of about C$200 million, the company said.

The capital program will be funded through operating cash flow, debt and, if needed, equity. Keyera maintained its dividend growth target of 6% to 8% annually through 2029.

The stock rose 1.2% to C$42.15 in Toronto trading Tuesday. Keyera has gained about 14% this year, outperforming the S&P/TSX Composite Index's 8% advance.

Execution risk centers on the fractionator build. Keyera's last major expansion, the KAPS pipeline, came in on budget and on schedule. A repeat would support the EBITDA target. A miss would put the 2029 goal at risk.

Keyera reports second-quarter results on Aug. 6.