Kalshi Traders See Low Odds on U.S. OpenAI Stake This Year

Kalshi traders see less than a 30% chance the U.S. government takes an equity stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, according to a prediction-market contract. The odds come after the Financial Times reported last week that OpenAI proposed granting the Trump administration a 5% stake in the company.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first shared that idea with the administration in 2025, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. President Donald Trump sidestepped a direct question on the proposal last week, instead pointing to the 10% stake the government took in troubled chipmaker Intel last summer. The Intel deal was exceptional, tied to a rescue. The OpenAI proposal is voluntary.

The Kalshi contract asks which companies the U.S. government will take a stake in this year. It resolves based on confirmation from government or official filings. For OpenAI and Anthropic, the probability sits below 30%.

The odds shift dramatically for quantum computing and defense-related tech. Traders price a better than 60% likelihood that the government takes a stake in Rigetti Computing or D-Wave Quantum this year. GlobalFoundries, a semiconductor manufacturer, also sits above that threshold.

The Commerce Department in May awarded $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing companies. Under that program, the National Institute of Standards and Technology takes minority non-controlling stakes in each recipient. Rigetti and D-Wave were both in the grant pool. That existing framework makes a government equity position more routine than a direct stake in OpenAI.

D-Wave holds an Alpha Score of 28 out of 100 on AlphaScala, a Weak label. The low score means the stock's fundamentals do not match the elevated contract odds, which reflect speculative pricing around the grant program rather than a high-probability deal.

The Wall Street Journal reported in May that the Trump administration may negotiate deals with private drone makers Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies, some of which could include equity stakes. Kalshi traders see a just-over-50% probability for Performance Drone Works and less than 40% for Neros.

CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.