Kalshi Lets Traders Bet on Drug Trial Results, FDA Decisions

“Drug development is one of the most important and most information-constrained industries on earth,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in the release. “The data that determines which drugs advance and which don’t is largely locked away from the people who need it most. Surfacing information is what Kalshi is for, and we are committed to doing it right: compliance-first, carefully scoped and built for the long-term.”

AppliedXL, which tracks pharmaceutical data, will provide the resolution infrastructure for the new markets, per the release.

“Clinical trial results are rarely handed to you cleanly,” AppliedXL Co-Founder and CEO Francesco Marconi said in the release. “They come out in pieces, scattered across registries, regulatory filings and company statements, and the press releases often put a favorable spin on what the data actually shows. Resolving a market means reconciling all of that back to the primary source, which is what we built AppliedXL to do.”

Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volume to rise from $51 billion last year to $240 billion this year and $1 trillion by 2030, it was reported in April.