Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour compared the prediction market's legal battles to early Uber and Airbnb fights, as multiple states sue. New York AG calls it gambling; CFTC pushes back.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour compared the prediction market's legal battles to early fights faced by Uber and Airbnb, arguing lawsuits are a predictable stage for startups that threaten entrenched industries.
"I think the more interesting thing that's at play here is that you have an industry, the prediction market industry, that is disruptive, that is growing fast, consumers are adopting it, and it's threatening a legacy incumbent industry that is unhappy about that," Mansour said on CNBC Monday.
He pointed to a pattern he said repeats across disruptive sectors. "It's played out with taxis and Uber. It's played out with hotels and Airbnb," Mansour said. Large lobbies are "effective at getting actions" filed against new market players, he added. "The playbook is very simple. It's: Litigate. Then you try to legislate. And then finally, when you realize that consumer demand is not going to go away, you try to compete and innovate."
Multiple states have filed legal or regulatory actions against Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market. New York joined the list last week with a lawsuit alleging the company's offerings amount to illegal gambling.
"New York's gambling laws protect children from underage betting and help combat gambling addiction," New York Attorney General Letitia James said Friday. "No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple."
Kalshi says it operates under CFTC oversight and is not a gambling platform. The CFTC has sought a temporary restraining order to block state-level regulation of prediction markets. "Rather than seek reasoned answers from the courts, Letitia James and New York seek to force an unprecedented, sudden shutdown of prediction markets nationwide," CFTC chief Michael Selig wrote on X Friday. "The CFTC has already sued to stop this and will continue to defend its jurisdiction."
Mansour said the cycle of litigation, legislation, and eventual competition is exactly what Kalshi is going through now. Uber faced lawsuits from taxi companies and regulators in dozens of cities, with some alleging it operated an illegal taxi business. Airbnb faced regulatory crackdowns in New York, Paris, and San Francisco, with fines for illegal listings and new licensing rules.
Representatives for Kalshi, Uber, and Airbnb did not respond to requests for comment.
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