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Iran's Power Structure Complicates Ceasefire Enforcement

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Iran's Power Structure Complicates Ceasefire Enforcement

2026-08-01 06:52 UTCBy AlphaScala Research DeskSource reporting: cnbc.comEditorial standards

Iran's Power Structure Complicates Ceasefire Enforcement

Fighting resumed this week after a brief pause, exposing how Iran's opaque power structure spanning the Supreme Leader, IRGC and civilian government complicates any ceasefire. Analysts say the Guards can act autonomously and groups like the Houthis may widen the conflict.

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Five months into the Iran war, each pause in fighting has revealed how hard it is to end it. The June 17 memorandum of understanding opened a 60-day negotiating period over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and Iran's nuclear and missile programs. It frayed within weeks as Iranian attacks on shipping prompted escalation. The U.S. resumed strikes for 13 consecutive nights until a pause on July 24, only for the fighting to resume Tuesday, with strikes overnight Wednesday and Thursday. Iran's army said Friday it had launched attacks on strategic U.S. assets and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Whenever negotiations resume, Iran's opaque power structure will shape not only what is agreed, but whether any deal can be enforced. That structure spans the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards, the civilian government, commanders and other groups. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House, told CNBC the IRGC is "the dominant force on war and national security." They operate "missiles, drones, intelligence networks and regional armed partnerships, and during active conflict its commanders can exercise considerable autonomy," she added.

President Masoud Pezeshkian leads Iran's civilian government, but ultimate authority over national security rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IRGC exercises significant operational autonomy. It answers directly to the Supreme Leader rather than the civilian government, which has long been undermined by the Guards. "The civilian government still matters, and the president can shape diplomacy, economic policy and the work of the Supreme National Security Council, but he does not command the armed forces," Vakil said. The IRGC exists alongside Iran's conventional military but is more powerful politically. It oversees missile forces, drones, regional operations and relationships with armed groups aligned with Tehran. That includes Hezbollah and the Basij paramilitary force for internal security.

Attacks attributed this week to Iran-aligned Iraqi militias on Saudi oil facilities and to Yemen's Houthis on pipeline infrastructure show how groups sympathetic to Iran could widen the conflict. Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told CNBC: "A ceasefire is not a switch that can simply be flipped. Iran wants to translate battlefield realities into political gains before locking itself into a new status quo." The U.S. has emphasized it wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened without tolls. While Tehran's civilian government seeks economic relief and sanctions easing, elements within the security establishment may view continued pressure in the strait as leverage.

Attacks on commercial shipping could become an early test of Iran's wartime balance of power. The government hopes to unlock frozen funds to provide financial relief for a population of over 90 million crippled by decades of sanctions. But the IRGC may see continued conflict as serving its interests. Vakil noted the Supreme Leader does not personally direct every tactical operation. The IRGC's commanders can act with considerable autonomy during active conflict.

This week marked the end of a temporary halt in hostilities after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Iran launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, all intercepted according to the U.S. military. The strike showed how quickly the conflict can expand even as diplomats attempt to restart negotiations. Earlier this week, diplomats sought to give peace talks "some space." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said Monday Iran currently has "no negotiations with the United States."

Amos Hochstein, former senior advisor to President Joe Biden and managing partner at TWG Global, told CNBC: "Iran has no intention of returning to the status quo before the war." The structure of overlapping power centers means any ceasefire would have to pass through layers of command, and the IRGC commanders and Tehran-aligned groups may interpret the terms differently. That makes enforcement of any future deal as difficult as its negotiation.