ING cut its Brent forecast to $72 for Q3 and $70 for Q4, saying the Strait of Hormuz reopening has removed the risk premium faster than markets expected.
Alpha Score of 75 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
Oil prices slipped further on Thursday after ING lowered its Brent crude outlook for the rest of the year, citing a faster-than-expected return of supply following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude traded near $71.51, down from highs above $74 earlier this week.
The Dutch bank now sees Brent averaging $72 a barrel in the third quarter and $70 in the fourth, down from previous estimates of $76 and $74 respectively. The revision reflects the rapid resumption of tanker traffic through the strait, which had been disrupted by regional tensions. ING analysts said the supply-side relief has arrived sooner than the market had priced in, compressing the risk premium that had supported prices through early summer.
ING carries an Alpha Score of 75 out of 100, a Strong rating from AlphaScala's proprietary model. The score reflects the bank's consistent track record on commodity calls and its disciplined approach to revising forecasts when conditions shift.
The supply rebound comes as demand signals remain mixed. U.S. crude inventories posted a smaller-than-expected draw last week, while Chinese import data showed a marginal decline in June volumes. ING's revised path implies that the market is now pricing a return to surplus conditions by the fourth quarter, barring a fresh disruption.
Brent's next test is the $70 support level. A close below that would open the door to the late-June lows near $68.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.