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India's resilient growth faces oil risk above $100: SEBI
SEBI’s annual report flags $100+ crude and Middle East conflict as key risks to India’s 7.7% growth. Record $19.7B FPI outflow in 2025-26. IMF sees 6.5% GDP in 2026-27.
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India’s financial markets are likely to hold up on domestic economic strength in 2026-27, but a prolonged Middle East conflict and crude oil above $100 a barrel could widen the current account deficit and stoke inflation, the Securities and Exchange Board of India said in its annual report.
The regulator’s assessment, published Friday, said the economy expanded an estimated 7.7% in the 2025-26 fiscal year, accelerating from 7.1% a year earlier. Private consumption and investment contributed 56.7% and 31.9% of nominal GDP, respectively. The domestic backdrop remains favourable, SEBI wrote, supported by fiscal consolidation, improving inflation dynamics, stronger corporate balance sheets and resilient institutional investment.
But global uncertainty tempers the outlook. The International Monetary Fund projects India will grow 6.5% in 2026-27, versus 3.1% for the world. A sustained resolution of the Middle East conflict and normalisation of energy prices would be the most important catalysts for a recovery in foreign portfolio flows, SEBI said.