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India's monsoon deficit widens as El Nino strengthens from Sept
ECMWF expects the current wet spell to fade by late August. Skymet sees a 70% chance of drought. Kharif sowing has recovered to near normal.
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India is staring at a wider rainfall shortfall as the current wet spell fades by late August and El Nino tightens its grip on the South-West monsoon, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said.
A leaner rainfall trend could last through September as El Nino accelerates the monsoon's withdrawal, which is expected to begin from North-West India around mid-September, ECMWF's outlook showed.
Skymet, a private weather forecaster, cut its monsoon outlook to 85% of the long-period average and predicted a 70% chance of drought. The all-India deficit stood at 13% as of August 16 and is expected to widen.
East and North-East India have the deepest shortfall at 27%, followed by the South Peninsula at 21%. North-West India is 12% below normal. Central India remains nearly even, down just 1%, according to India Meteorological Department data.
Arunachal Pradesh leads the subdivisions with a 39% deficit, followed by Assam and Meghalaya at 38% each. Punjab and Coastal Andhra Pradesh are each 36% below normal, and Rayalaseema sits at 35%.