
Nifty futures slip 0.2%, Brent near $87 on Strait of Hormuz fears. India's $15bn annual import bill at risk if crude stays above $85. Kotak cuts oil marketing earnings 4-7%.
Indian shares are expected to open flat to slightly lower on Thursday, with crude oil holding near $87 a barrel after a reported missile strike near the Strait of Hormuz. The Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange slipped 0.2% in early trade, tracking the overnight drop in U.S. equities.
Brent crude settled at $86.95 on Wednesday, up 1.8% on the session. The waterway handles about a fifth of the world's seaborne crude, and any escalation that narrows the strait would hit Asian refiners hardest, traders said. Iran accounts for roughly 2% of global output.
India imports more than 80% of its crude requirements. A $10 rise in the oil price adds roughly $15 billion to the annual import bill, according to official estimates. The rupee weakened 0.3% against the dollar in early offshore trading.
State-run oil marketing companies–Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum–face the sharpest margin compression if crude stays above $85, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a note Wednesday. They cut their earnings estimates for the sector by 4-7% for the current fiscal year.
Defense stocks drew buying interest in pre-market activity. Shares of Bharat Electronics and Hindustan Aeronautics were indicated higher on expectations of increased government spending on border security and naval assets.
Foreign portfolio investors sold a net $240 million in Indian equities on Wednesday, provisional exchange data showed. That was the largest single-day outflow in three weeks. Domestic institutional buyers absorbed roughly half that amount.
The weekly U.S. crude inventory report is due later Thursday. A bigger-than-expected drawdown would add to the upward pressure on prices.
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