
India has secured LNG supplies through September by tapping US, UAE and Angola after Iranian attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan. Winter demand from Europe could tighten supply, pushing Asian spot prices higher.
New Delhi has locked in enough liquefied natural gas to meet demand through September by pulling cargoes from the US, the United Arab Emirates and Angola. The shift follows Iranian missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's biggest LNG production and export hub, an official said.
State-run oil and gas companies and refiners have two months of supplies already tied up, the official added. Curbs on industrial gas use have been gradually eased. There are no signs of peace in West Asia in the near term.
Qatar supplied about half of India's LNG before the war. QatarEnergy stopped production and declared force majeure after the March attacks. Experts said the damaged facilities could take three to five years to repair.
The US became India's top LNG supplier in April and May. Cargoes from the US were valued at $728.29 million, more than triple the $199.92 million a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed. Other key suppliers included Nigeria at $580 million, Oman at $517.9 million, Angola at $301 million and Trinidad at $142.56 million. Oman and the UAE are now the only primary West Asian suppliers.
India faces a serious structural challenge in the medium to long term, said Harsh V. Pant, vice president at the Observer Research Foundation. The main impact is financial, not physical volume availability, he said.
"QatarEnergy's long-term contracts provided stable, predictable pricing. Now, replacing those lost volumes via flexible short-term cargoes or on the spot market comes at a massive premium, with Asian spot LNG prices surging," Pant said. "There is a higher fiscal burden whether you look at it from the fertilizer perspective or gas and industrial units' perspective."
India's LNG import bill was $13.4 billion in FY26. In the first quarter of FY27, supplies fell to 7,674 million standard cubic metres from 8,396 million a year earlier. The import bill rose to $3.6 billion from $3.4 billion, data showed.
The benchmark Japan/Korea Marker spot price was at $21.37 per mmBtu, about 60% higher than the pre-war level of $13.36. Prices eased in mid-June after peace talks and an interim deal between Iran and the US. They have surged over the past two weeks. The JKM Marker spot LNG price increased from $16.80 on July 15.
Winter demand from Europe could tighten global supply further. "We forecast the volume of US LNG exports to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year in winter 2025-26," said Benjamin Gage, founder of Balance Point Research LLC, an LNG data-tracking firm. The extra supply will help soften weather-driven price volatility and allow Indian buyers to bid into a wider pool of cargoes, he said.
Ed Cox, global LNG editor at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, said if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed till March 2027, TTF gas prices may trade higher than the current average of €61/MWh over the winter. In his base case, more Qatari volumes return from October, bringing TTF to about €55/MWh and Asian spot LNG lower.
"For the key LNG-importing markets of NW Europe, current underground storage inventory levels are approximately 10 BCM below last year," Gage said. "The performance of temperatures in both NE Asia and in Europe, particularly in the fourth quarter, will guide prices for marginal LNG cargoes available to Indian buyers."
The ICIS TTF front month traded at €58.9/MWh on Friday.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.