India, US tariff talks reopen as Supreme Court ruling scrambles deal math

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal and India's chief negotiator Darpan Jain attended the meeting at Vanijya Bhawan. Agrawal said June 15 that the ministers' discussions would focus on giving "final touches" to the framework.

Under the February terms, India committed to eliminating or reducing tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods plus a wide range of agricultural products including dried distillers' grains, red sorghum, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine and spirits. New Delhi also offered to buy $500 billion of U.S. energy products, aircraft, precious metals and coking coal over five years.

The talks face complications beyond the tariff math.

The USTR launched two Section 301 investigations on March 11 and 12 covering about 60 economies. One examines alleged excess industrial capacity. The other looks at forced-labor concerns in global supply chains. India was included in both. The parallel tracks could give Washington leverage or create friction, depending on how aggressively the USTR pursues them.

India's trade surplus with the U.S. shrank to $34.4 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year from $40.9 billion the prior year. Exports grew just 0.9% to $87.3 billion while imports rose 16% to $52.9 billion. The U.S. remains India's second-largest trading partner.

The July 24 expiry of the Section 122 tariff creates a hard deadline. If the framework deal is signed by mid-July, the current 10% levy gives way to a new schedule. If it is not, the old tariffs are off the table and the uniform 10% charge continues until it expires or gets replaced.