
Iran offers a $3-4/bbl crude discount to India under a 60-day US waiver. Payment logistics and existing supply deals limit how much refiners can absorb. LPG flows offer an alternative.
A 60-day U.S. sanctions waiver, granted Monday after initial peace talks, has reopened a narrow channel for Iranian crude sales to India. National Iranian Oil Co. and several intermediaries have approached Indian refiners offering barrels at a $3 to $4 discount to similar regional grades on a landed basis, two refining sources said.
The approaches come directly from NIOC and through small and mid-sized trading firms based in Singapore and Dubai. “Several traders are contacting us for Iranian oil. My priority is NIOC,” one of the sources said. The sources declined to be named because the discussions are confidential.
Indian refiners have limited room to take advantage. Most have already secured crude supplies through August, the sources said. Middle Eastern term suppliers are pressing buyers to honor annual contractual commitments. Any Iranian barrels would likely replace spot purchases, not term volumes. That could put pressure on other spot suppliers if deliveries go through.
The 60-day clock ends in mid-June. Iran and India previously settled crude deals in Chinese yuan during a 30-day waiver in April, when two cargoes reached India. The current waiver does not specify a settlement currency. Payment mechanisms and banking channels remain unclear, the sources said.
Liquefied petroleum gas offers a separate path. India already imports Iranian LPG through traders, and those flows could increase under the waiver, the sources said. Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad visited New Delhi this week. Crude and LPG supplies were discussed. No deals have been signed yet.
India was Iran’s second-largest oil customer in the 2010/11 financial year before sanctions forced New Delhi to halt crude imports in May 2019. The discount is real, yet execution risk is high. Refineries are designed for specific crude slates, and shifting to Iranian grades would require adjustments. One source said existing supply commitments mean any Iranian barrels would displace spot purchases, not term contracts.
The market watches for the first cargo nomination. If payment logistics clear, the discount could pressure Middle Eastern benchmark differentials. If the window closes with no substantive flows, Iranian barrels stay out of reach until the next waiver round.
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