
India's power ministry will track hydropower output through the Grid Controller after a rainfall deficit threatens summer peak supply.
India's power ministry will monitor hydropower generation through the Grid Controller of India, assessing rainfall projections including the weather office's forecast for next month to gauge any impact on electricity output.
The move follows a rainfall deficit that has raised concerns about hydropower availability during the summer peak demand season. Lower reservoir levels could force grid operators to rely more heavily on coal-fired plants, which already supply roughly 70% of the country's electricity.
Hydropower typically accounts for about 10-12% of India's generation mix but plays an outsized role in meeting evening peak demand because hydro plants can ramp up faster than thermal units. A shortfall would tighten the supply-demand balance during the hottest months, when air-conditioning loads push consumption to records.
The Grid Controller will track weekly reservoir data from the Central Water Commission and compare it against normal storage levels for this time of year. The weather office's updated monsoon forecast, due next month, will be a key input for the assessment.
India's peak power demand hit a record 250 GW in May 2024, and the government has projected it could exceed 260 GW this summer. The power ministry has already directed coal plants to maximize output and imported coal-based plants to run at full capacity through June.
A sustained hydropower shortfall would increase the system's dependence on coal, potentially straining railway logistics for coal transport and raising emissions. It could also push spot power prices higher on the Indian Energy Exchange during evening peak hours.
The ministry said it will issue operational advisories to state utilities and regional load dispatch centers based on the monitoring data. No specific generation targets or curtailment measures have been announced yet.
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