
July rainfall trimmed India's monsoon deficit to 13% after a 35% June shortfall. The IMD predicts below-normal August, with El Nino strengthening.
India's monsoon rainfall for July came in 1% above the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department said, trimming the season's overall deficit to 13% after a 35% shortfall in June.
The country received 283.3 mm of rain in July, against a normal of 280.5 mm. The improvement was driven by a record 24 low-pressure systems, the most for any July since 2017, IMD Director-General M Mohapatra told reporters.
The distribution was uneven. Sixteen states covering 36% of the country's area reported deficient rainfall, including five in the north-east where absolute totals are usually high. The east and north-east subdivision logged a 30% shortfall at 529.3 mm, against 752.5 mm considered normal. The south peninsula recorded 23% below normal at 280.1 mm, its first below-normal July in eight years, Mohapatra said.
The central region fared better, with a 4% surplus at 511.4 mm. The north-west, home to the main grain belt, reported a 12% deficit at 254.4 mm.
Mohapatra warned that August and the combined August-September period could both see "below normal" rainfall. A moderate El Nino is expected to persist through August and strengthen into a strong event by September, he said. The Indian Ocean Dipole may turn positive in September, which experts said could offset some of El Nino's drying effect.
July 2026 was also the third hottest July since 1901 in terms of mean temperature, despite the above-normal rainfall, Mohapatra noted. The next rainfall update from the IMD is due in early September.
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