
Indian government bonds are expected to open weaker this week as oil prices remain elevated ahead of potential US sanctions on Iran, a trader said.
Indian government bonds are likely to start the holiday-truncated week on a cautious note, with oil prices elevated ahead of a potential US announcement on additional sanctions against Iran. The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond is expected to trade between 6.83% and 6.88% on Monday, a trader at a private bank said. The bond closed at 6.8495% on Friday after posting its biggest weekly rise of the financial year. Indian debt markets are shut on Wednesday for a local holiday.
“We are in for another week, which is expected to be dominated by moves in oil prices, with hardly any triggers on the local front,” the trader said.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to brief media later in the day and has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran. President Donald Trump has also threatened to impose sanctions on Tehran’s trading partners. Iran has condemned the plans even as President Masoud Pezeshkian called for a diplomatic solution.
Benchmark Brent crude remained above $92 a barrel, raising concerns for major energy importers such as India. Higher oil prices could fuel inflation and strain the current account. Government finances also face pressure from the import bill.
Last week, minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s August monetary policy showed policymakers are open to rate hikes if inflation risks materialise and broaden. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said evidence of such spillovers could warrant “policy tightening”. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said a case for a hike may emerge this year.
A supportive factor for bonds is the central bank’s weekend announcement that it had garnered nearly $73 billion through measures to bolster India’s balance of payments.
India’s overnight indexed swap rates may continue to rise tracking bond yields. The one-year rate ended at 5.9025%, the two-year rate at 6.1250%. The five-year rate settled at 6.42%.
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