India's monsoon second half to be 7% below normal, IMD says. Full-season forecast held at 90%. Uneven showers pose risks to rain-fed crops, but irrigation coverage and a potential positive IOD may limit the damage.
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India's monsoon is set to deliver below-normal rain through September, with the second half of the season likely to fall 7% short of the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department said Friday. The full four-month forecast stayed unchanged at 90% of normal, or 781.74 mm, even after June and July together ran 13% below the LPA.
The August-September period is expected to bring about 393 mm of rain, or 93% of its 422.8 mm benchmark, an official from the weather bureau said. Even in a worst-case scenario, the deficit would not stretch beyond 84% of normal, he added, suggesting the shortfall may not be severe enough to derail the broader crop outlook.
Farmers had sown on 71% of the normal area through July 24, the official said, and the crops should hold up if showers stay regular even at lower volumes. The full-season forecast held because July's deficit was partly offset by a series of low-pressure systems – 24 developed during the month, the highest since 2017 – which brought heavy rain to some regions. But those systems also made the July forecast harder to pin down, the official noted.
The rainfall pattern in August will be uneven. Most parts of the country are likely to see below-normal precipitation except for pockets of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsula – including coastal Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, southwest Odisha, parts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada, northeast Madhya Pradesh and coastal West Bengal. Northern Karnataka, a key pulse-growing region, may receive normal or above-normal rain after July delivered a 1% surplus there.
India's northwestern food bowl, where irrigation is widely available, may be drier than normal in August, the IMD's forecast map shows. That reduces the risk to the wheat and rice crop, but rain-fed areas in central and southern states face greater exposure.
El Niño conditions are expected to persist through August and may strengthen into a 'strong' event by September, IMD Director-General M Mohapatra told reporters. The Indian Ocean Dipole, which typically boosts monsoon rain when positive, could turn favourable in September, though the bureau's own model shows neutral conditions continuing. A positive IOD could offset some of El Niño's drying influence, experts said.
The deficit in the second half comes after a mixed start to the season. Countrywide rainfall in June and July totalled 389.8 mm, or 87% of the 445.8 mm LPA for those two months. Even with a 7% shortfall in August-September, the full season would still land near 90% – within the range the IMD considers normal.
"The crops will sustain if there is regular rainfall even if quantity-wise less," the official said.
For markets, the monsoon performance is a key input for food inflation, rural demand and the Reserve Bank of India's rate path. A full-season shortfall of more than 10% would raise the risk of vegetable and pulse price pressure, though the current forecast keeps that scenario at bay. The next update from the IMD is expected in September, when it reviews the forecast for the final month of the season.
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