IEA Sees 800K bpd Surplus as Non-OPEC Supply Hits 2016 High

Non-OPEC supply growth is concentrated in three countries. The U.S. is adding roughly 600,000 barrels a day from the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico. Brazil's pre-salt fields are ramping up another 400,000 barrels a day. Guyana's Stabroek block, operated by ExxonMobil, is on track to hit 750,000 barrels a day by year-end.

The surplus projection assumes OPEC+ holds output at current levels through year-end. If the alliance cuts an additional 500,000 barrels a day at the June meeting, the surplus would shrink to roughly 300,000 barrels a day, according to IEA modelling. OPEC+ delegates have not signaled a cut is under discussion.

U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday, the fourth consecutive weekly build. Gasoline stocks also rose as refinery runs increased.

The IEA report is the first to project a second-half surplus for 2026. Previous editions showed a balanced market through the first half.