Commodities▲ Bullish
Hormuz Risks Support Crude as US Natural Gas Supply Stays Ample
Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings drop to 6 as Iran adopts active defensive posture. EIA sees 600,000 bpd loss. US gas storage 5% above 5-year average. Natural gas holds below $2.73.
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Renewed Middle East supply risks from the deteriorating U.S.-Iran talks pushed crude higher, while U.S. natural gas prices stayed capped near $2.70 as ample storage and high production offset the bullish energy backdrop.
Hormuz Risks Support Crude
Iran said it would adopt an "active defensive" military posture, signaling a shift toward a more offensive stance as talks for a permanent solution stalled. The U.S. ruled out extending the temporary truce. The Strait of Hormuz saw only six commodity vessels cross on Aug. 15, down from an average of 11 over the prior 10 days, data show. Strikes on vessels exiting the strait have raised the risk that tanker traffic will not return to normal quickly.
Even with the partial lifting of sanctions, crude oil supplies via Hormuz are expected to be restricted for most of August, the EIA said. The agency forecasts a loss of 600,000 barrels of crude per day from the Middle East for the remainder of 2027. Diesel and gasoline shipments from China eased global products market tightness in July, as Chinese restrictions related to Iran eased, according to the report.
WTI crude traded at $84.25, extending its recovery from August lows. The front-month contract held above the 50-period exponential moving average at $81.85 and the 100-period EMA at $81.28. The RSI stood at 59, indicating upward momentum without overbought conditions. Resistance sits at $86.87, then $90.56, traders said. Support is at $81.76 and $78.39.