Hichilema leads the aggregate vote by 87,427 after 49 of 226 constituencies, but has won only 20 seats against Mundubile's 29. His Southern Province margin of 154,380 may be impossible for Mundubile to overcome with narrower wins elsewhere.
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President Hakainde Hichilema holds a 87,427-vote lead in the aggregate count after 49 of 226 constituencies, the Electoral Commission of Zambia said, a gap built almost entirely on lopsided margins in his Southern Province stronghold even as rival Brian Mundubile has won more individual seats.
Hichilema has taken 438,708 votes against Mundubile's 351,281 across the announced results. He has won 20 of the 49 constituencies, nine fewer than Mundubile, who has taken 29. The president's advantage comes from Southern Province, where he collected 155,943 votes against Mundubile's 1,563 – a 154,380-vote edge that more than offsets any deficit elsewhere.
Hichilema also performed strongly in the two North Western constituencies announced and won four of five in Central Province, leading there 49,834 to 24,013. Mundubile has won all 10 constituencies announced in Luapula Province, accumulating 91,019 votes to Hichilema's 46,014. In Eastern Province, Mundubile leads 88,188 to 57,204, having won seven of the 10 constituencies declared there.
The disparity in winning margins is the central dynamic of the race so far. Hichilema's biggest constituency win is Chikankanta, where he polled 38,739 against Mundubile's 475 – a margin of 38,264. His next largest margins include Sinazongwe (28,716), Kalomo South (23,719), Monze East (22,094) and Dundumwezi (21,997). Mundubile's widest margins are far smaller: Kasama Central (12,510), Chinsali Central (11,620), Chipata North (9,173) and Chifunabuli North (7,842).
If the remaining 177 constituencies follow the pattern of the first 49, Hichilema's lead in the aggregate vote may prove difficult for Mundubile to overcome. The president's Southern Province margin alone is nearly double the 87,000-vote lead he now holds. Mundubile would need to win the remaining seats by margins several times larger than he has managed so far to close the gap.
Two constituencies have been extremely close. In Luano, Hichilema took 7,084 votes against Mundubile's 6,893, a difference of 191. In Mafinga North, Mundubile leads 7,489 to 7,180, a margin of 309. These tight races suggest the election remains competitive in several provinces.
The Commission plans to announce the next set of results at 11:00 hours local time.
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