HDFC Bank profit miss, crude spike knock Sensex 0.6%

Indian equities opened the week in the red, with the Sensex sliding 0.6% and the Nifty dropping 0.4% as a surprise miss on margins from HDFC Bank and a surge in crude oil above $90 sapped risk appetite.

HDFC Bank fell 4.6% to ₹781.80, the steepest decline on the Nifty50, after its June-quarter net interest margin disappointed analysts. “HDFC Bank has disappointed, particularly on the NIM front,” said Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. The sell-off spilled into other private lenders: Axis Bank dropped 4.1%, Kotak Mahindra Bank lost 3%.

The divergence within banking was stark. ICICI Bank, which reported a strong set of numbers Friday, held flat through the morning. Vijayakumar called ICICI’s performance “stellar.” ICICI Bank carries an Alpha Score of 57 at AlphaScala, compared with HDFC Bank’s score of 45, a gap that reflects the near-term quality difference within the sector.

The broader market was hit by a jump in crude. Brent crossed $90 a barrel as Tehran declared a breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire, raising the risk of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. “India’s vulnerability to energy shock will resurface with negative implications for the rupee and FPI flows,” Vijayakumar said. Devarsh Vakil, head of prime research at HDFC Securities, said the ceasefire breakdown was amplifying fears of a shipping route disruption.

A handful of stocks bucked the trend. Cipla rose 1.5%, Tech Mahindra added 1.4%, ONGC gained 1.4% and JSW Steel climbed 1.4%. The IT sector continued its outperformance from last week, when the Nifty IT index rose 4.2%.

Technical analysts said the sell-off had not broken the broader structure. Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities said the Nifty had formed a bullish weekly candle and maintained a higher bottom on the daily chart. He identified 24,000–24,200 as a support zone, with resistance at 24,600. Sachin Gupta of Choice Broking noted that options data still showed put writers active at the 24,100 strike, with the Put-Call Ratio at 1.13 and India VIX at 13.15. “Despite the weak global backdrop, the domestic market continues to exhibit a resilient technical structure,” he said.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said stock-specific moves would dominate near-term trading as Q1 earnings roll in, while indices stay sensitive to global risk sentiment and crude prices.

Bank Nifty, which closed Friday at 58,521 after a 939-point rally, faced resistance at 58,600–58,700 with support at 58,000. A break above that resistance could open a run to 59,000–60,000, analysts said.

On the flow side, Vijayakumar said the recent pullback in AI-related stocks in the US, South Korea and Taiwan could make India more attractive to foreign portfolio investors – a potential silver lining as crude and banking headwinds dominate the session.