Guinea Gold Refining Mandate Poses New Risk for Predictive Discovery

Predictive Discovery faces a new regulatory deadline in Guinea. The government issued a decree on 8 July 2026 requiring all gold produced in the country to be refined locally before export. Miners have a 90-day transition period expiring on 6 October 2026. After that, gold must be refined to at least 95.5% purity by an authorised Guinean refinery and certified for export. Industrial producers remain responsible for arranging their own sales, subject to the new rules.

PDI operates the Kiniéro gold mine in Guinea, which started production in late 2025, and holds the Bankan development project, one of West Africa's largest undeveloped gold deposits. The company said it does not expect the decree to have a material impact on its 2026 production guidance of 198,000–220,000 ounces. Gold exports were paused briefly after a 21 June meeting with President Mamadi Doumbouya, during which the government outlined its intention. Since the decree, PDI has shipped roughly 33,800 ounces of gold under existing export agreements, generating provisional receipts of about $135.7 million. Mining and processing operations have continued without interruption, the company said.

PDI is working with Guinean authorities, the Chamber of Mines, and other producers to support a practical transition. It is also investigating the possibility of building its own on-site refining capacity to hit the purity threshold before export. The government has indicated that the Nimba Gold Refinery in Conakry will play a central role in the new framework.

The risk from the decree is a disruption to export logistics. If certified refineries are not ready by October or if capacity at Nimba bottlenecks, PDI could face delays in shipping gold. That would temporarily slow cash flow from the Kiniéro operation. The company's cash position of $364 million – $273.9 million in cash and 22,444 ounces of gold bullion – and strong operating cash flow provide a buffer. Debt outstanding was $130 million drawn under the Sprott senior secured facility.

What would reduce the risk? A smooth transition with certified refineries operational by the deadline, or PDI securing its own refining capability. What would increase it? Delays in certification, capacity bottlenecks at Nimba, or a stricter enforcement that halts exports. The company's cash margin during the quarter totalled $112 million, calculated as receipts from customers of $217 million less operating costs of $105 million. That result reflects strong cash generation from both Kiniéro and Nampala, supported by the ramp-up at Kiniéro.

Beyond the decree, PDI resolved a capital gains tax dispute with the Guinea government. It paid $13.8 million in July as part of a settlement related to the merger between PDI and Robex. The company received confirmation from the authorities that no further capital gains tax, registration duties, or other fiscal claims will arise in Guinea from the merger or related post-merger reorganisation activities, providing fiscal certainty.

Operational performance during the quarter was strong. Kiniéro and Nampala generated cash margin of $112 million on receipts of $217 million. Capital expenditure totalled $30 million, including $26 million on mine development and infrastructure. Exploration drilling continued at both mines, with 11,553 metres drilled at Kiniéro and 4,277 metres at Nampala. The company also surpassed 7.4 million hours without a lost time injury at Kiniéro and 2.1 million hours at Nampala.

PDI is targeting production above 400,000 ounces annually by 2029 once Bankan comes online, which remains subject to an exploitation permit and a final investment decision. The transitional period for gold exports runs to 6 October 2026.