Graphite Prices Slide as UN Sees 131% Demand Surge

Shipping volumes for the month were mixed. Seaborne flake volumes from Mozambique and Madagascar increased, while Chinese export data showed a slight dip in shipments to Japan and Korea. Traders said the dip was seasonal, not structural.

The tension between low spot prices and a bullish long-term outlook creates a familiar pattern for commodity investors. Near-term cash flow pressure rewards low-cost producers with secured offtake, while higher-cost developers face financing hurdles. Several publicly listed graphite miners have seen their shares slide this year as spot prices lag.

The UN forecast, if realized, would require annual graphite output to nearly triple from current levels. That puts a premium on projects that can reach production before 2030, when the bulk of new battery capacity comes online. The next major catalyst for the sector is the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act, which is expected to impose domestic processing requirements later this year.

For now, the market is watching Chinese flake prices as a leading indicator. A sustained move below 4,000 yuan would pressure marginal producers in Africa and North America. A recovery toward 5,000 yuan would signal that downstream restocking has begun.