
A 9-3 Fed vote to hold rates, 30-year yields at 2007 highs, and gold's resilience against higher yields strengthen the case for a renewed advance, SaxoBank's Hansen says.
The Federal Reserve's 9–3 vote to hold interest rates steady, even as inflationary pressures mount, is raising questions about the political pressure facing Chair Kevin Warsh, according to SaxoBank's Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen.
The market reacted immediately. The long end of the Treasury curve sold off, pushing the 30-year yield to its highest since 2007. Hansen said the vote split underscored the Fed's difficult balancing act: containing inflation fueled by higher energy prices and war-related supply disruptions while facing persistent pressure from the Trump administration to lower borrowing costs.
Risk assets fell. Gold did not. Despite the rise in nominal and real yields -- normally a headwind for the metal -- prices held their ground. Hansen said that resilience points to firm underlying demand, not just safe-haven buying.
Looking ahead, Hansen said the case for a renewed advance in gold continues to strengthen. He cited growing concerns about fiscal sustainability, questions about the Fed's credibility, robust physical demand from Asia, and the prospect of a weaker dollar once markets begin pricing in slower growth. All of those factors, he said, provide increasingly supportive longer-term fundamentals.
At the same time, the recent wobble in the AI-driven equity rally is a reminder that expectations in that sector remain exceptionally high, and delivering future growth requires ever-larger capital commitments, Hansen said. Against that backdrop, he said tangible hard assets -- including precious metals and selected commodities -- deserve a meaningful place in a diversified portfolio, especially with geopolitical uncertainty, inflation risks, and fiscal imbalances still elevated.
Hansen said he is due back from holiday next week and plans to revisit these themes, seeing whether the market has confirmed or challenged his initial observations.
For a broader look at how gold fits into the current macro environment, see the gold profile.
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