Trump nears Iran decision as Hormuz blockade tightens. Goldman Sachs warns Brent could hit $120. NZD rises on inflation, LSE plans night trading.
Markets are approaching a decisive stretch in the US-Iran conflict. President Trump is said to be nearing a choice between a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a full-scale campaign with Israel, according to Axios. US forces continue massing in the region. The US launched its 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.
Oil firmed near one-month highs. The Saudi-led coalition vowed to respond with force to a Houthi naval blockade threat. The UK military and UKMTO reported a fresh tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's army said it targeted US missile systems at Kuwait's Arifjan base. Iranian state media reported renewed explosions in Bandar Abbas.
Oil eased slightly after attention turned to reports that regional mediators were pushing Washington and Tehran toward a new ceasefire. Then Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two tankers had been struck near the strait and declared it closed outright. The Guard also claimed to have destroyed US radar and defence systems in Bahrain. Iran separately said missile and drone strikes had hit a US Patriot air defence system in Bahrain's Riffa. The US State Department issued a worldwide caution alert. Regional tensions built further.
US intelligence officials reportedly take a pessimistic view of further strikes. They believe the bombing campaign is unlikely to meaningfully soften Iran's negotiating stance. Iranian sources claimed the destruction of a wider set of US radar and satellite communications assets at Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base in Kuwait. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli intelligence believes Iran has moved thousands of centrifuges into tunnels at Pickaxe Mountain, a site Trump has now threatened to strike directly.
Goldman Sachs GS warned Brent could climb above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 through 2027 if the Hormuz disruption persists. The bank's Alpha Score on AlphaScala's model is 45/100.
Oil markets traded in a sedate fashion despite the news flow. Gold added 1% on the day. South Korea's Kospi extended its rebound, last up 4% intraday, led by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.
Trade tensions resurfaced. Trump announced additional tariffs of up to 50% on Canadian alcohol and motor vehicle products, citing discrimination against US commerce. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded with a measured statement, emphasising continued willingness to negotiate rather than immediate retaliation.
New Zealand's Q2 inflation accelerated to a two-and-a-half year high, reinforcing expectations of a September RBNZ rate hike and lifting NZD/USD. Those gains were pared once the RBNZ's own sectoral factor model came in more subdued, taking some heat out of rate hike speculation.
The London Stock Exchange LSEGY plans to launch a night trading venue in the first half of 2027, initially offering access to exchange-traded products tracking UK and US equities, the Financial Times reported. LSEGY's Alpha Score on AlphaScala's model is 25/100.
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