Goldman Sachs says Gen-AI could substitute 8-12% of India's non-farm jobs while complementing 42-48% of workers. Services face highest risk; physical jobs see gains.
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Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI could substitute 8% to 12% of India's non-agricultural employment, with a much larger share of the workforce seeing their jobs reshaped rather than eliminated.
The bank's report, released this week, said 42% to 48% of non-farm workers would likely be complemented by the technology – meaning it automates parts of their routine tasks while leaving the core of the job intact. The remaining workers would be largely unaffected, Goldman said.
“Overall, Gen-AI is more likely to reallocate labor across occupations over the Gen-AI adoption period,” the report said, suggesting the technology will shift where people work rather than trigger mass unemployment.
Goldman estimated that 9% to 17% of task content across India's non-agricultural jobs is exposed to Gen-AI-driven automation. The range depends on how complex a task the technology can handle. If Gen-AI can complete work at difficulty levels three and four – things like monitoring regulatory compliance, examining financial records, or analyzing data trends – then 13% to 15% of non-agricultural tasks could be automated, the bank said.
The highest exposure sits in the services sector. Education, media, financial services and professional services face the biggest potential disruption. Sectors that rely on physical labor, such as construction, show relatively low task exposure at around 8%, Goldman found.
Financial services account for about 6% of total employment excluding agriculture. Within that sector, Gen-AI can complement analyst roles by automating basic modeling work while potentially substituting routine back-office functions like compliance checks, the report said.
Clerical support roles, which make up about 3% of non-agricultural employment, face the highest substitution risk, Goldman said. Professionals account for another 3%, followed by services and sales workers at around 2% and technicians at about 1%.
At the same time, the bank expects demand to increase for occupations requiring physical involvement. It projected employment gains for physical occupations (around 4% of non-agricultural jobs), craft and trade-related workers (around 3%), and plant and machine operators (around 2%).
“Where exposure is limited, Gen-AI is more likely to complement workers by reducing time spent on routine tasks and freeing capacity for higher-value work. Where exposure is higher, substitution risks rise,” the report said. “Occupations dominated by physical tasks are likely to remain unaffected.”
The report underscores a pattern that economists have flagged across developed and emerging markets: automation tends to hit clerical and routine cognitive work hardest, while jobs requiring physical presence or complex judgment prove more resilient.
Goldman's GS stock page Alpha Score stands at 62 out of 100, with a Moderate label in the Financials sector.
India's non-agricultural workforce is roughly 500 million people, according to World Bank data. An 8% to 12% substitution rate would affect 40 million to 60 million workers over the adoption period, though the bank stressed that reallocation – not permanent displacement – is the more likely outcome.
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