Goldman Sachs sees H2 2026 crypto recovery, sets $196 COIN and $124 HOOD targets despite falling volumes. XRP stake hits $86.5M. PCE data Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs has turned cautiously optimistic on crypto for the second half of 2026, recommending investors buy Coinbase Global (COIN) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) shares. The bank's Americas Brokerage and Crypto Industry research showed crypto trading volumes down 30% in July and 21% in August, a longer decline than any of the previous five cycles.
Total crypto market trading volumes have fallen roughly 75% from the peak, the report said. The crypto market cap rebounded about 21% to $2.8 trillion over the past week. Goldman analysts said volumes could bounce back if market cap holds near current levels.
The report surveyed institutional investors. Some 35% view regulatory uncertainty as the top barrier to adoption. Another 32% see regulatory clarity as the primary catalyst. The report cited recent SEC innovation exemptions and OCC national bank charters for crypto companies. It also flagged crypto infrastructure services for traditional finance as a positive.
Goldman CEO David Solomon backed the CLARITY Act despite opposition from banks to its stablecoin yield provisions. The SEC continues pushing crypto regulations. The CLARITY Act faces delays. The bank is bullish on crypto markets in H2 2026, expecting September and October to bring seasonal strength to trading volumes.
Goldman issued buy ratings on COIN with a $196 price target and HOOD with a $124 target. COIN shares are up more than 21% on the week, HOOD up 12%. The bank expects revenue to rise with crypto firms expanding into tokenized stocks and prediction markets.
AlphaScala's proprietary scoring puts COIN at 31/100 (Weak) and HOOD at 48/100 (Mixed). Goldman Sachs (GS) scores 61/100 (Moderate).
Goldman also raised its crypto ETF positions in the second quarter. Its XRP ETF stake climbed to $86.5 million after the bank exited XRP entirely in Q1, CoinGape reported. XRP is up more than 50% since the re-entry became public.
Bitcoin has recovered above $80,000, up 26% on the week, after hitting a 24-hour high of $81,160. Trading volume rose almost 75% in the last day. Bitcoin is now testing the 50-week moving average at $81,100. The next catalyst is Wednesday's US PCE inflation data.
The volume decline has now lasted longer than any of the prior five cycles. Goldman's volume recovery call depends on market cap holding near $2.8 trillion. A fade below that level would keep the drawdown going, the analysts said.
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