SMR deployments could reach 46 GW by 2045, adding 62M lbs of uranium demand. Spot prices stabilised in the mid-$80s/lb as utilities accept higher term deals.
Goldman Sachs has added small modular reactors to its uranium supply-and-demand model for the first time, projecting cumulative SMR deployments of nearly 46 GW by 2045. The revision, published in the bank's latest "Nuclear Nuggets" tracker, lifts its 2045 nuclear generation forecast by about 6% and creates an additional 62 million pounds of uranium demand–a 17% upside to the prior long-term demand estimate. The same note warns of a cumulative uranium supply deficit of 2.3 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045, a gap that widens with every new reactor approval and life extension.
The model change arrives as North American reactor operators secure multi-decade license renewals and provincial utilities formalise information-sharing agreements on large-scale nuclear technology. For traders tracking the uranium equity space–including Cameco Corp (CCJ), which carries an AlphaScala Score of 59 (Moderate)–the Goldman revision is not a distant forecast. It is a demand-side shock layered on top of a supply chain that was already struggling to meet current requirements.
Small modular reactors have moved from policy white papers into utility planning cycles, and Goldman’s decision to embed them in a formal supply-demand model marks a shift in how the sell-side treats the technology. The bank now assumes 46 GW of cumulative SMR capacity by 2045, a figure that reflects projects advancing through licensing and early site preparation rather than aspirational targets.
The addition of SMRs increases Goldman’s 2045 nuclear generation forecast by 6%. That translates into 62 million pounds of incremental uranium demand, equivalent to roughly 17% of the bank’s previous long-term demand estimate. The numbers matter because they are additive to an already-stretched baseline. Large-scale reactor builds in China, life extensions in North America, and restart discussions in Japan and Europe were already pulling the demand curve higher. SMRs now add a second layer that the supply side has not priced in.
The model revision lands during a period when uranium spot prices have stabilised in the mid-to-high $80s per pound after rebounding in April. Term pricing is holding near $90 per pound, signalling that utilities are accepting higher long-term contracts to secure future supply. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has been an active buyer, providing a floor under spot. Adding 62 million pounds of demand to a market where term deals are already clearing near $90/lb suggests the price discovery process is about to get more competitive.
While SMRs represent future demand, the existing reactor fleet is locking in decades of additional consumption right now. Four recent North American developments illustrate the trend:
Each license renewal to 80 years adds roughly two decades of additional uranium consumption beyond the original 60-year design life. The Robinson and St. Lucie approvals alone secure demand for approximately 2.3 GW of capacity through mid-century. When combined with the Bruce Power-SaskPower MoU–which signals that a province without existing nuclear generation is actively exploring large-scale deployment–the demand picture extends well beyond the current fleet.
Goldman analyst Brian Lee quantifies the cumulative supply deficit at 2.3 billion pounds from 2025 to 2045. That figure is not a single-year gap; it is the sum of annual shortfalls that compound as new reactors enter service and existing units extend operations.
The deficit is driven by three forces converging. First, primary mine supply has underperformed for years, with Cameco and Kazatomprom both facing production challenges. Second, enrichment and conversion capacity is concentrated in a handful of facilities, creating bottlenecks that delay the transformation of mined uranium into reactor-ready fuel. Third, financial buyers like the Sprott Trust have absorbed spot pounds that would otherwise be available to utilities, tightening the physical market.
Spot uranium in the mid-to-high $80s/lb range and term contracts near $90/lb tell a straightforward story: utilities are paying up for security of supply. The term market is the more important signal because it reflects the price at which producers and consumers are willing to commit multi-year volumes. A term price near $90/lb suggests that both sides see tightness persisting.
Cameco Corp (CCJ) sits at the centre of the North American supply picture. The company carries an AlphaScala Score of 59 (Moderate), reflecting a balance between strong long-term contract coverage and near-term production uncertainty. A separate AlphaScala note flagged that Cameco’s production guidance is under pressure, with implications for how much uranium the company may need to purchase in the spot market to meet delivery commitments.
Cameco operates the world’s highest-grade uranium mine at McArthur River and the Cigar Lake mine in Saskatchewan. When production falls short of guidance, Cameco has historically turned to the spot market to buy pounds for delivery into term contracts. That buying, layered on top of Sprott’s activity and utility procurement, would accelerate the drawdown of available spot inventory. For traders watching CCJ stock page, the next production update is a binary event: a guidance cut would likely force spot purchases, while a stable outlook would keep the focus on long-term contract pricing.
The Goldman note is part of a series tracking nuclear fuel chain developments. Recent milestones include Oklo and Centrus advancing HALEU deconversion services, Nano Nuclear progressing a HALEU transport package, and the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA removing enriched uranium from Venezuela and Japan to support domestic supply. These are incremental steps, not immediate solutions. The fuel chain from mining through conversion, enrichment, and fabrication remains the industry’s binding constraint.
The 2.3 billion pound deficit is a baseline, not a ceiling. Several variables can shift the trajectory in either direction.
The Goldman model revision crystallises a demand trajectory that the supply side cannot meet without higher prices and new investment. For traders positioned in uranium equities or considering entry, the near-term catalysts are specific and observable.
Cameco’s production update is the most immediate. A guidance cut would likely trigger spot market buying and lift both spot prices and equity valuations for producers with uncommitted pounds. Term contract negotiations through the second half of 2026 will reveal whether utilities are willing to pay above $90/lb to lock in multi-year supply. SMR licensing milestones–particularly for projects in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.–will test whether the 46 GW assumption is realistic or conservative.
The uranium market has moved from a surplus narrative to a structural deficit narrative over the past five years. Goldman’s addition of SMRs to its model is the latest data point confirming that the demand side is accelerating while the supply response remains constrained by geology, permitting, and enrichment capacity. The commodities analysis framework suggests that when a structural deficit meets inelastic demand, price discovery tends to be violent rather than gradual.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.