Gold price prediction: $3,800-$6,300 bull and bear cases

Gold trades near $4,218, down 22.8% from its January peak. The chart pattern says gold topped in January – and the chart pattern is the trap.

The simple read is a textbook double top. Gold hit $5,460 in January, pulled back to $4,800, rallied to $5,450 in February, then broke below the $4,800 neckline in March. That shape has ended bull runs in gold before. The measured move from the pattern targets $3,800.

The better read starts with what changed underneath. The January peak came as COMEX gold futures hit a record net long of 1,200 tonnes, according to CFTC data. That positioning was extreme by any historical measure. The February rally to $5,450 was thinner – open interest was 15% lower than January. The breakdown through $4,800 in March was driven by liquidation, not new shorts. That matters because a liquidation-driven selloff tends to exhaust itself faster than one driven by fresh speculative selling.

Central banks are the wild card. Global central banks bought 1,045 tonnes of gold in 2024, the third straight year above 1,000 tonnes. The People's Bank of China added 225 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025 alone. Those buyers do not trade off chart patterns. They buy on dips. The PBOC's average entry price over the past 12 months is roughly $4,350, according to World Gold Council data. At $4,218, the price is below that average. That creates a structural bid that did not exist in previous gold corrections.