Gold ETF Inflows Stay Positive for Second Week, Asia Leads

Gold traded at $4,298 an ounce Friday, up more than 6% for the week. The move above $4,200 broke a multi-week range, helped by optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran, said Prithviraj Kothari, managing director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd and president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. Easing crude oil prices and lower inflation expectations provided the tailwind, he said. “Technically, gold eyes $4,500.”

Renisha Chainani, chief research officer at Augmont, tied the breakout to shifting rate expectations. “Markets now price a 55% probability of a U.S. rate hike in September, down from 63% a week earlier,” she said. Lower odds of a hike reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, she added.

The rally comes after a steep correction. Gold hit a record $5,608 an ounce on January 29 this year, then shed roughly 25% of its value as fears of inflation, rising bond yields and stronger crude oil prices pulled investors toward other assets. The 2024–2025 bull run had been fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions centered on the U.S.-China trade dispute, and safe-haven demand.

For now, the combination of renewed ETF buying and a technical breakout above $4,200 suggests traders are testing the $4,500 level that Kothari flagged. The next catalyst will be the September Fed meeting, where the rate decision will determine whether the flows can turn into a sustained trend.