Gift Nifty Signals Open as Crude Eases After Iran Truce

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said India VIX advanced to 14.03, indicating elevated risk perception and expectations of higher near-term volatility. Option positioning also reflects a cautious undertone, with maximum Put Open Interest concentrated at the 23,700 strike, marking immediate support for the Nifty. Maximum Call OI sits at higher strikes, he said. The technical and derivatives landscape continues to favour a sell-on-rise strategy, Dhameja added. A sustained move below 23,650 could accelerate the corrective phase towards 23,515-23,325, while only a decisive close above 24,000-24,130 would improve the near-term outlook and signal a meaningful recovery.

Defensive sectors are attracting institutional flows. Shah said FMCG and low-volatility strategies continue to draw interest. Mid-cap IT made a good comeback on short covering and cash-led buying, she said. Weakness persists in the broader mid-cap universe and still warrants caution.

Foreign portfolio investors have been net sellers this month, especially during the last few sessions. Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking, said foreign institutional flows are likely to remain volatile until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical situation and sustained stability in crude oil prices, which will be key to restoring investor confidence and improving the outlook for equity markets. In the coming week, investors will closely track crude oil price movements and developments in the ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, he said. The Q1FY27 earnings season will remain in focus.

V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd, said so far this month, FPIs have continued to be big sellers in markets like South Korea and Taiwan. This weakening of the chip trade is positive for India, he said. The spike in Brent crude following the escalation of the conflict in West Asia is becoming a concern if the price spike lasts longer, as it will again impact India's macros. If crude price declines and stabilises, FPIs are likely to turn consistent buyers in India, he added. Crude price is the data to watch, Vijayakumar said. The rise in the US 10-year bond yield to 4.7% is largely negative for equities and might slightly affect FPI flows to emerging markets, he added.

Tuesday's monthly expiry will test the support levels flagged by options positioning. The next move in crude oil, driven by further developments in the US-Iran situation, remains the primary external catalyst for Indian equities.