Galaxy Digital Sees Just 10% Chance for CLARITY Act Passage

Midterms reframed the fight. Democrats want control of the Senate or the House, and they have no interest in handing the White House or Congressional Republicans a win, Thorn said. The bill's merits, Thorn said, are beside the point in the current session.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is moving on its own to add clarity, updating rules to protect consumers while allowing innovation. Rulemaking, however, can be reversed by a later administration, Thorn said. Legislation would be harder to unwind, which is why he prefers it.

Prediction markets take a more optimistic view. Kalshi prices the chance of approval before Oct. 1, 2027 at 41%, rising to 45% before Jan. 1, 2028. Polymarket shows a 20% chance the bill becomes law before the end of the year. The two markets use different time windows, Kalshi's running into 2028 and Polymarket's to year-end, so the prices are not directly comparable. Thorn's estimate sits well below both.

Approved or not, the Senate votes before year-end. The roll call puts senators from both parties on the record about innovation in financial services and investor protection.