
FuboTV lost 400k subs after merging with Hulu + Live TV. The path to positive EBITDA is real: content costs fell 10 points. Next earnings Aug. 5. Analysts see value at $12.35.
FuboTV merged with Hulu + Live TV in late 2025, and the combined entity now runs over 5 million subscribers. The market focused on subscriber slippage after the deal closed. That attention misses a bigger shift: margins are improving fast.
The merger combined two streaming TV platforms into one. Content licensing costs, the single biggest drag on FuboTV's gross margin, got renegotiated for a larger audience. The bigger subscriber base also let FuboTV push advertising rates higher, a move that would have been tougher with either platform alone.
FuboTV management has guided for positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026. The company reported a sequential improvement in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA narrowed from a loss of $18 million to a loss of $7 million. The path to breakeven runs through two factors: lower content cost per subscriber and higher ad revenue per user.
Subscriber losses came in where analysts expected them. The merger required trimming overlapping subscriber bases in many markets. The company lost roughly 400,000 subscribers in the first full quarter after close. Management told analysts those were mostly duplicate accounts or free-trial users who did not convert. The remaining base has a higher average revenue per user and lower churn, according to the CFO.
Wall Street has noticed the profit profile. The stock carries a consensus price target of $12.35. Several analysts cite the EBITDA trajectory as undervalued relative to peers. FuboTV trades at about 1.5x forward revenue, a discount to the broader streaming sector. The buy thesis rests on the idea that the market is still pricing the stock on subscriber trends rather than on the improving margin structure.
A skeptic could point to structural headwinds. Cord-cutting continues. YouTube TV remains a strong competitor. FuboTV's sports focus gives it a narrower demographic, which may limit ad growth. The company also carries $400 million in debt from the merger, and free cash flow is still negative.
Still, the EBITDA story is grounded in real cost changes. Content costs had been eating 75% of revenue. That number is now closer to 65%. The 10-point margin swing is worth roughly $300 million at current revenue run rates. The company expects to reach breakeven free cash flow by the end of 2027.
The next test comes with the second-quarter earnings report on August 5. If EBITDA keeps improving and subscriber losses slow, the bull case gets another data point. If the margin stalls, the stock will likely trade back toward $8.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.