Fortescue slides 14% in 2025 as iron ore demand fears mount

The miner shipped 95.1 million tonnes of iron ore in the first half, flat versus the prior period, and kept its full-year guidance at 190-200 million tonnes. Capital expenditure for the year is pegged at $3.2-$3.8 billion, including spending on its green hydrogen projects in Australia and the US.

Fortescue's net debt stood at $3.1 billion at Dec. 31, up from $2.4 billion six months earlier, reflecting higher spending on the energy transition arm. The company's cash cost of production was $18.24 per wet metric tonne, among the lowest in the industry.

Analysts at Macquarie rate the stock as neutral with a price target of A$19.50, citing the risk of further iron ore weakness against the potential upside from green hydrogen. The next catalyst is China's steel output data for March, due in mid-April, which will show whether demand is stabilising after the Lunar New Year slowdown.