Falling Channel Puts Natural Gas Support at $3.02

Natural gas printed a lower swing high at $3.30 on Wednesday, extending a falling channel that now has three touches of its upper boundary. The first touch came at the $3.40 peak two weeks ago. The second followed near $3.25 last week. Wednesday's rejection at $3.30 marks the third, and each lower high reinforces the bearish structure.

The channel's lower boundary sits in a zone from $3.02 to $3.05. Monday's low was $3.02. The 100-day and 20-day moving averages converge there with a rising trendline and the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.05. Price dipped below that zone last week and recovered quickly. It is testing the same area again.

If the support zone fails, the next target is the 50-day moving average near $2.91. That line has already risen above the May swing low of $2.86, which gives it more weight as a support level. The 20-day moving average at $3.15 has held as an intermediate floor so far.

Wednesday's outside day – a higher high and a lower low than Tuesday – adds bearish momentum. An outside week is on track to complete Friday if current levels hold through the close. That pattern often precedes an inside week, meaning more consolidation around the support zone before a directional move.

Resistance is clear: $3.30, then $3.40. A break above the channel's upper boundary would invalidate the bearish setup. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.

Bruce, a CMT charter holder leading the analysis, sees the third touch of the channel's upper boundary as a reliable continuation signal. The next meaningful test is whether the $3.02-$3.05 zone holds or gives way to the 50-day moving average.