FalconX confidentially files S-1, hires Cantor Fitzgerald. With BitGo below IPO price and trading volumes weak, the year-end target tests institutional appetite for new crypto listings.
FalconX has confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the first step toward a public listing. The institutional crypto prime broker hired Cantor Fitzgerald and other banks to advise, according to a person familiar with the process. The IPO is not expected before the end of the year. The move puts a $8 billion valuation on the test – and the result will signal whether the crypto IPO pipeline is open or blocked.
The year-end target suggests FalconX expects a market recovery later in 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald brings deep ties to crypto: the bank acts as a custodian for Tether reserves and advised on multiple tokenization deals, including the Securitize SPAC merger. These relationships give FalconX access to a banker that understands digital-asset balance sheets. The timeline also leaves room for market conditions to improve.
Cantor is joined by other unnamed advisors. The group will handle the book building, pricing, and regulatory navigation. FalconX has not disclosed financial details, a privilege of the confidential filing process that lets the company gauge demand without public scrutiny.
The single biggest headwind for FalconX is the post-listing performance of recent crypto IPOs. BitGo (BTGO) trades below its IPO price, weighing on sentiment for the entire cohort. Circle (CRCL) carries an Alpha Score of 28 out of 100, rated Weak, reflecting ongoing valuation and liquidity concerns despite its dominance in USDC issuance. The proprietary AlphaScala metric weights earnings stability, insider activity, and technical momentum. A weak score for the sector's largest pure-play issuer does not bode well for FalconX's public market debut.
Circle and Bullish (BLSH) rallied out of the gate in 2025. Market conditions have since weakened. Trading volumes across major exchanges fell roughly 30% from the 2025 average. Institutional derivatives activity slowed. The lackluster performance of BitGo (BTGO) reinforced the narrative that crypto IPOs are prone to post-listing drift.
At least four high-profile crypto firms have delayed their IPO plans while waiting for market conditions to improve:
Blockchain.com last week said it had confidentially filed for a US IPO, suggesting some firms still see a path forward. Securitize agreed to merge with Cantor Equity Partners II, a Nasdaq-listed SPAC, to take tokenized securities exposure public. These two exceptions do not yet signal a broad reopening.
Two conditions would support the FalconX IPO: a sustained recovery in bitcoin and ethereum spot volumes above the 12-month average, and a reversal in BitGo (BTGO) price action. If BitGo can build a floor and trade at a premium to its IPO price, the stigma on new crypto listings would dissipate.
Three events would weaken the thesis:
If FalconX delays or scraps the filing outright, it would confirm that the crypto IPO window has closed for now. Private valuations across the sector would face downward pressure.Investors watching the FalconX story should track peer liquidity and valuation metrics on the CRCL stock page and follow broader crypto market analysis for volume trends. The Alpha Score of 28 on Circle is a reminder that even established tokens carry execution risk.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.