Crypto PACs spent $6M+ to defeat Rep. Al Green. The win signals consequences for anti-crypto lawmakers. The CLARITY Act still faces Senate ethics hurdles.
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Six crypto-backed candidates won in Texas primary runoffs this week, including the defeat of 20-year incumbent Al Green. The victory triggered a blunt warning from Fairshake: being anti-crypto has electoral consequences.
In the Texas 18th District, Representative Christian Menefee defeated Al Green, who had voted against the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act. Fairshake and Protect Progress combined to spend over $6 million supporting Menefee, with Protect Progress directing $2.8 million against Green. The outcome makes Green the first Democratic incumbent to lose a seat this cycle due to crypto opposition.
Other industry-backed winners include Carlos De La Cruz (Texas 35th), Alex Mealer (Texas 9th), Tom Sell (Texas 19th), and John Bonck (Texas 38th). In the Senate primary, Ken Paxton – supported by the crypto PAC Fellowship – edged out John Cornyn, bringing the total to six wins spanning both parties.
A surface-level take: crypto PACs deployed capital, anti-crypto lawmakers lost, pro-crypto candidates won. The industry now has a broader base of supporters in Congress. For traders and policy watchers, that looks like a clear positive for future crypto-friendly legislation.
The wins covered Democrats and Republicans, which Fairshake framed as proof that the industry rewards allies regardless of party. That narrative helps maintain political cover. The end goal remains passage of the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill that aims to define crypto securities rules and provide a regulatory framework. The bill cleared a Senate committee hurdle in mid-May.
The path to law is narrow. The Senate floor vote, expected in June, will compete with other priority bills. More consequential: ethics provisions embedded in the bill are creating friction.
Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen, warned in a Tuesday note that conflict-of-interest requirement demands could deny the bill the Democratic support needed for passage. The political environment, he wrote, is getting worse for the CLARITY Act.
“The political environment is getting worse for the Clarity Act. It is why we remain pessimistic that Clarity will become law this year.”
That view is reinforced by Jake Chervinsky, CEO of the Hyperliquid Policy Center, who noted that there “isn’t much time left” for the bill.
The odds of passage have dropped below 60%, according to the source. The ethics issue is not a fringe concern – it directly affects the coalition the bill needs to clear 60 votes in the Senate.
Election wins build momentum but do not legislate. Key insight: A broad political base for crypto does not automatically translate into floor votes if the bill contains poison-pill provisions that split the party base. The next hard confirmation point is the Senate floor vote. If the ethics language is not revised or clarified, the bill could stall even with more friendly faces in the House.
For the thesis that crypto regulatory clarity is accelerating, the confirming data point would be a Senate floor vote that passes the CLARITY Act with bipartisan support, ideally before the August recess. That would remove the single biggest uncertainty for U.S.-based crypto issuers and exchanges.
The weakening scenario: the ethics provisions remain unresolved, Democrats pull support, and the bill dies or gets tabled until 2025. That would leave the regulatory vacuum intact and expose pro-crypto lawmakers to pressure from constituents without delivering a legislative win.
June is the stated window. The source notes that “uncertainty is deepening.” If the bill slips past June, the odds of passage this year drop sharply. The current sub-60% probability reflects that risk.
The Texas results give the industry a talking point: anti-crypto stances cost seats. That shifts the incentive structure for undecided lawmakers. The CLARITY Act’s fate, however, depends on the Senate schedule, Democratic leadership, and ethics language – not on PAC spending alone.
For crypto traders and institutional allocators, the regulatory path remains a binary variable. Passage of the CLARITY Act would likely be a positive catalyst for the entire sector – particularly for tokens and projects that have been waiting for SEC clarity. Failure would reinforce the status quo of enforcement action and uncertainty.
Bottom line for traders: The Texas wins are a bullish political signal but not a legislative breakthrough. Watch the Senate floor calendar and the ethics debate. If the bill clears, expect a risk-on rotation into crypto assets. If it stalls, the same narrative-driven volatility that defined 2024 will persist.
AlphaScala’s sector coverage includes regular crypto market analysis tracking regulatory catalysts, PAC spending, and their effects on digital asset prices.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.