EUR/USD Bulls Face NFP Test; Oil, Nasdaq at Risk of Reversal

The euro is pushing higher against the dollar. That rally faces a critical test this week from eurozone inflation data and the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report. Inflation is expected to creep higher, a pattern now customary across developed economies. The NFP print is likely to show a lift in employment. If both come in hot, the dollar could bounce back and reverse the euro's recent gains. A turnaround in sentiment would sink EUR/USD to 1.1540, with 1.1700 acting as the first resistance. Traders are also watching the Middle Eastern conflict for any shift in risk appetite that could accelerate the move.

EUR/USD: Policy Path vs. Momentum

A straightforward interpretation sees the euro as bullish with momentum intact. A more precise view factors in the policy path. Higher eurozone inflation would keep the ECB on a tightening trajectory. Higher U.S. inflation and a strong NFP would push the Fed further into hawkish territory. Rate differentials matter more than absolute levels. If the dollar strengthens on the data, EUR/USD could break below 1.1700 and test the 1.1540 support zone. Thursday's eurozone CPI print and Friday's U.S. jobs report are the decision points. A miss on either side confirms or weakens the setup. For more context on the pair, see the EUR/USD profile.

Oil: Nuclear Deal Expectations Weigh on Prices

Oil prices moved lower across the board. Expectations of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal drove the decline. President Trump admitted Iran was close to agreeing to terms, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and release more barrels into the market. This move is symbolic of the overall wariness about demand growth for the rest of the year. 90.00 is the fresh psychological support, and 97.50 remains the first hurdle higher. The transmission path here is clear: a deal would increase supply, cap prices, and pressure oil-linked currencies. Without a deal, supply risks could push oil back toward recent peaks. Traders should watch for any official confirmation or denial from the administration.

Nasdaq 100: Tech Leaders Push Records

Indices remain buoyant as the Nasdaq 100 continues to hit new records. The AI and tech bubble narrative persists, with tech giants leading the charge. Nvidia and Amazon are among the main winners, underscoring their status as market leaders. 30800 is the hurdle ahead for buyers. Any potential pullback needs a close below 29000 to signal a shift. Nvidia (NVDA) holds an Alpha Score of 73/100, reflecting moderate momentum despite a 1.45% dip today to $211.14. The stock remains a key driver for the index. The next catalyst for the Nasdaq 100 will be any shift in rate expectations from the NFP data. Growth stocks are sensitive to the discount rate. For detailed analysis of Nvidia, visit the NVDA stock page.

The week ahead is defined by data and geopolitics. For EUR/USD, the inflation and NFP prints determine whether the dollar regains the upper hand. For oil, the nuclear deal timeline is the primary variable. For the Nasdaq 100, the ability to hold above 29000 and break 30800 sets the tone for the broader risk appetite. Each market is linked through the dollar and rate expectations, making the macro transmission the key framework for the week.